Study On The Assessment And The Influence Factors Of Stability Of Commercial Bank Management

Because of the frequent occurrence of large-scale financial crisis in the end of the twentieth century, as well as the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis which happened once every hundred years at the beginning of this century, the safety management of the commercial banks has gained unprecedented attention. Focusing on the requirements of the daily sound operation of commercial banks, a series of new regulatory measures are designed and widely used by countries around the world. But most of the indicators that designed to measure the robustness of the banking business are static back indicators, less of them are dynamic forward-looking indicators. Therefore, in order to objectively understand the risk level of banks, be able to discover the outstanding banks which are operating stability, as well as to understand the behind influencing factors of the operating stability level of banks.selected the2008-2011panel data of Chinese commercial banks as the research object, firstly established the indicators to measure the operating robustness of banks on the base of KMV expected default frequency model; Followed by using the index to make an assessment of Chinese commercial banks operating robustness level, and the significant test results proved that the index can better reflect the current risks that banking industry facing. And finally the writer investigated the impacts of the size of banks and non-interest income changes on the commercial banks operating robustness level through the establishment of the econometric model.The results showed that:market-oriented reforms have not yet completed in Chinese financial markets, commercial banks subject to the limitations of the separate operation, state-owned commercial banks reflect the special effect relationship between the robustness of the level and scale of business, however, non-state-owned commercial banks’ risk increases with the increase of asset size. At the same time, Chinese domestic commercial banks get many profit from interest income contribution and therefore, non-interest income become a good complement by the expansion of new business, so it can reduce the risk of commercial banks business. Such conclusions are consistent with the research results of small and medium-sized banks in the foreign mature market. Liquidity indicators and market structure indicators had no significant effect on the estimated results; Robustness test also supported the above conclusions. These conclusions provide a meaningful revelation for the management and development of China’s banking sector in the future.The shortage is that EDF as the only indicator is insufficient to describe the operating stability level of banks perfectly. Imported more indicators can solve this problem. Second is that more powerful influencing factors could be added into the research.