The Study Of Financial Warning Model Based On The Economic Value Added

Along with the development of capital market, with the growing competition between enterprises, enterprises in order to avoid the various risk which makes them get into trouble, in order to get positive development.It is necessary to establish effective real-time dynamic financial warning model,and also for enterprise stakeholders and government, because the model can provide the decision information.Manufacturing is the pillar industry in China, the industrial production has been speed fast, the products of industrial production in the world ranking is also in front. China’s manufacturing industry is in the middle of the stage of industrialization.And if china promotes the development of the manufacturing industry vigorously, the modernization of our country can speed up. The problem of employment pressure can solve, and the fiscal revenue in China have a great increase. Because the competition beteween enterprises is fierce, so some of the manufacturing listed companies due to the enterprise internal various causes, lead to the enterprise’s financial situation get worse, even had been dubbed the "ST" sign. So taking some of the manufacturing listed companies as the research samples for the financial warning’s study is very necessary.Enterprise financial crisis process is its financial conditions getting worse and worse, so this paper considers the financial crisis which has the time of cumulative, taking the city of shenzhen and shanghai’s two listed companies as quarterly data of the study sample sources. In this paper enterprise of historical data takes the weighted method, that is to say the data farther away from now,the data to the impact of the enterprise is more small, so give the data the smaller weight, then use the modeling sample to set a model, and the inspection sample to detect the accurate forecast model.This paper chooses listed manufacturing enterprises which were the first time judged of ST in2011and four matching financial healthy enterprises together as the modeling sample.Use the traditional index with the EVA index and cash flow index, and the listed company’s quarterly data,to set a financial crisis EWMA dynamic early warning model. Then choose2011four other the first time judged of ST and four matching financial health enterprises,as a valid sample,to inspect the forecasting accuracy of financial crisis prediction model, eventually this paper’s accurate forecast is87.5%.In this paper,the empirical research first takes the EVA index, cash flow index and traditional financial index data for difference inspection and stationarity test respectively. Then choose four indexs (EVA/total equity, cash flow index, accounts receivable turnover, advocate business wu income growth rate), to establish the financial warning index system. At the end of the empirical analysis shows that take EVA index, cash flow index to EWMA warning index system, it’s effective to improve the financial warning model accurate forecast.