Chinese Listed Company Delisting Risk Early Warning Research Problem

Chinese stock market backs a city system creation is take releasing of 《stock certificate method》 as sign, but back city system to release behind not drive effective implementation, on February23,2001《loss in business the company stop to become available in the market and terminate to become available in the market to carry out a way》 promulgation, mark to back city system formal start.However, from back the city 《implementation way》 to promulgate up to now, the backing of listed company city work at physically in operation, still keep existing many problems, for example back a city mechanism one, back city standard to lack can operate detailed regulations, don’t strictly back a city condition, the investor benefits didn’t be subjected to full protection etc.,The existence of these problems causes the our country is on the system level F through built up to back city system, but the listed company backs city risk to still be placed in the status of after the event control, but lacks risk to appear a front the caution in time, this have no at basically solution back city breeze existence to back the company stock of city risk to still stimulate on the stock market, still have no by the root change have into have no, have into a difficult of situation.Therefore, set up to design Chinese stock market system risk early-warning model, strengthen the caution to back the city risk to listed company research, adopt an effective tube on one’s own initiative cure measure and aim at to back city risk, actively prevention, defend to control to combine, so as to make to back an early-warning mechanism of city to produce result more availably, make the existence back the listed company of city risk to withdraw stock market in time, promise thus the stock market is normal to revolve.The risk identifies and the treatment is the core contents that backs a city risk management and backs a city mechanism to effectively circulate.How build up a worthy listed company to back city risk early-warning model, as early as possible identify and the caution listed company back city risk and be thus advantageous to in the before the event to control risk and help the perfect stock market to back a city mechanism, protect investor legal rights and lower risk in the market.Promise from the system that the investor can control company at any time a stock possibility of back city risk status, promote the stability development of our country stock market. The transformation that invests a principle to the our country stock market and turn as usual, raise operation efficiency in the market, goodly promote a function.Back a city risk early-warning mechanism of perfect, contribute to guiding a stock certificate to take charge of a section to adopt measure to guard against and dissolve risk, for promote stock market championship inferior to discard, healthy development;The perfect bank takes charge of a mechanism;Protect investor benefits and exaltation listed company quality to have great theory meaning and realistic meaning.Because the economy, finance of different nation develops level different, back a city mechanism not to exert a homology, back a taking charge of of city method to the stock market also different, our country the inevitable and foreign related research exist certain difference in setting up the method that the stock market backs city risk early-warning model.In studying concerning the foundation that backs city risk early-warning model at home and abroad, the this text’s review backs the category of city risk and backs the function, target of city early-warning mechanism and backs the policy content of city mechanism and backs a city method first.Backed an early-warning mechanism of city to carry on contrast to the parts of nations and listed company in the regions, from back city standard, back city procedure and back city system rules etc. to tally up a mature stock market up of back city risk early-warning experience.Pass again with our country back the comparison of the city early-warning mechanism, get our country back the early-warning aspect of city risk exists of problem.BE analyzing to back the category of city risk, early-warning method, function and target and after backing a city mechanism, aim at setting up a suitable our country to physically back city risk early-warning model.The research that the concerning our country listed company backs city risk mainly in backing a city mechanism and backing early-warning system of city, concentration’s all of majority of researches are the theories that aims at system research, but make use of model analysis thus to aim at to back an early-warning research of city risk to combine to not much see from the substantial evidence angle.Hence, study aspect in the substantial evidence, the writer makes use of regression model and carries on substantial evidence analysis, the establishment backs city risk early-warning model.Back the theory foundation of city risk early-warning model to carry on an outline to the listed company first, then selected by examinations to set up the risk index sign that the model needs, and carry on introduction to the selection method of index sign, at the same time carry on quantity to turn valuation to backing of kind our company city risk.Afterward this text carried on positive Tai to the sample index sign data examination and all be worth a difference examination, set up on this foundation our country the listed company back city risk early-warning model and then examine from examination and substantial evidence of model both side to carry on verification and application to the model.Back city risk to the listed company the condition do to adjudicate and make sure that each item prognosticating a value sample changes to measure, and select by examinations model calculate way, carry on a statistics examination to the index sign.Examine whether the index sign matches positive Tai to distribute, if match, then adopt T examination method to the index sign carry on a value examination all.According to risk index sign all the value examine to subsequently choose that the different method sets up early-warning model as a result.The examination shows risk index sign as a result the data not agrees with to match the positive Tai distributes, and all the value examination show Zhao and then set up Logistic regression model.If examination means that the index sign data matches positive Tai to distribute as a result, all the value examination shows Zhao and then needs to choose to set up other models.This text aimed at an examination method that divide positive Tai of line index sign’s distribute to choose the adaptability examination of Kolmogorov-Smimov.(K-S examination)The principle of the method is make use of the sample data estimate sample of total whether obey some theory to distribute, is a kind of examination method that draws up to match an excellent degree, this method general application in investigate a continuous type random change to measure of distribute.This research adoption K-S examination the method verify if the index sign matches positive Tai to distribute.Pass an index sign examination the selection not agree with to match positive Tai to distribute and all the value have Zhao after changing to measure, carry on relativity analysis towards changing measuring, get rid of much heavy total line influence, thus make sure that the establishment backs changing of city risk early-warning model to measure.Make use of the logistic regression within SPSS19.0analysis method forward and gradually regression method, estimate according to the condition parameter of principle(Forward:Conditional)carry on from change the sieving for measuring.Is divided into the sample of selection to back city risk and didn’t back city risk two major types of company, will make use of the finance index sign data importation that the automatic select function picks out, adopt logistic regression analytical medium of2dollars logistic minimum two multiplicationses carry on analysis get result, build up model.Carry on total examination and estimate result accuracy for showing Zhao to examine to the model.The listed company that will build up at last backs early-warning model of city risk to carry on an usage.Pass theory and substantial evidence research conclusion, our country the backing of stock market city mechanism all exist many problems in the aspects of backing city standard and backing city procedure and cause some existence back the listed company of city risk be not eliminated.Study result enunciation, listed company whether existing to back city risk and the profit ability of listed company is closely related.Generally say come, a listed company has good profit ability, the business enterprise profits presents up-trend. and the possibility of backing the city’s happening to the company then is smaller.Is contrary, if the listed company is in the process of developing in the profit ability descend, the company profits narrows gradually, and the company then probably takes place to back city risk.According to the research conclusion, several finance index signs of listed company for whether it exists to back city risks to all have to a little bit greatly influence, but our country the existing listed company back amount of city to turn standard but more single, existing back city sign rules if listed company continuously for3years the lossing in business then give to back a city risk warning.Therefore, how build up a sound our country to back a city risk early-warning mechanism, the perfect mechanism for backing city is a pass our country the listed company is healthy to develop, the stock market contains the important subject of preface operation.