| Nowadays, credit has been an indispensable part of business life. Credit economy continue to promote the social economy forward. Credit risk not only influences financial corporations directly, but also influences various aspects of society and economy. In our country, credit risk has been a obstacle to the economy, because of the low level of risk management. So the credit risk management is significant and pressing.Along with society’s development, the traditional method to measure the risk and the management credit risk could not adapt the new situation which occurs in the society now, and can not satisfy the need to carry on the scientific quantification measure and the effective management to the credit risks. But in China, the modern credit risks measure model’s application did not have to promote completely, but along with the financial globalization’s tendency, the money market fluctuation aggravating as well as the network economy’s development, each kind of financial organ is facing more and more complex financial risk, in this kind of situation, our country needs carries on to the credit risks measure and the management locates, the establishment suits our country credit risks management level the modern measure model.This article has first analyzed the reason which the credit risks measure technology emerges, then has carried on the contrast comparison to the credit risks measure method, and chosen KMV model which quite widespread application in the overseas. As a result of its gain data simple and regarding risk formidable predictive ability merit, it is to be listed compared with suitable present stage China. About the KMV model’s research, we mainly concentrates in two aspect questions. First of all, whether the KMV model does suit China’s situation, namely whether can distinguish between each enterprise’s credit risks. Second, how should establish regarding the model in parameter by suits in the present stage China. Regarding these two questions, this article selected China electronic information profession to carry on the real diagnosis examination for the sample. The conclusion was the KMV model basically suits our country present stage. It might distinguish enterprise’s credit risks. Simultaneously, underwent the real diagnosis examination, this article obtains violation hypothesis which has suited an electronic information profession. Finally, this article attempts to establish a set of early warning system, through KMV model measure enterprise’s credit risks violation distance. When its violation distance falls to the certain extent, this company’s credit risks need to bring attention to corporate management, as well as bank attention. Goes a step further, when this company’s violation distance continues to drop to some value, we may think that in the entire profession its credit risks is biggest. This article had discovered through the research such two spots, have established first-level and the second-level early warning line.This paper consists of five chapterThe first part mainly introduced this article research background, the goal and the practical significance. Based on this, I reviewed the domestic and foreign academic circle regarding the credit risks measure research, especially the KMV model research which adopts regarding this articleThe second part first carried on to the credit risks measure method mainly included the traditional credit risks measure method and the modern credit risks measure method. Then it has carried on the contrastive analysis to the present stage popular main modern credit risks measure method. Through the comparison it obtains the KMV model suits the present stage of Chinese national condition.The third part mainly introduced the KMV model’s content, including this model’s rationale, the computation step, the KMV model’s development and the existence flaw as well as this model serviceability in our country.The fourth part is empirical study based on our country’s electronic information profession with the KMV model. It is the hard core of this article. First step, I select the sample according to the analysis; Second step, determines various parameters computational method in the KMV model according to our country’s realistic situation; Third step, uses many kinds of inspection procedures to carry on the examination and the analysis to the model, obtained that the KMV model suits our country and got the suited violation spot in the electronic information profession; Fourth step, has carried on the research with three year violation distance in our country’s electronic information profession, established early warning system.The fifth part does summary this article, including empirical analysis conclusion, research limitation and following research... |
