| Since the policy of reform and opening put into practice, China’s rapid economic development, trade surplus stimulate growth of narrow money supply and broad money supply at a faster running pace. Principles of economics tells us: "money illusion" caused by moderate inflation is conducive to economic growth. In other words, maintaining moderate "excess liquidity" is conducive to economic development. In the new century, "excess liquidity" has gradually become an important feature of macroeconomic, and the resulting of negative effects such as asset bubbles, reducing the financial system operating efficiency, resulting in excess capacity of producticity and other issues has caused a high degree concerned of academic and government departments.This paper begin with tracing theory and addressing the root causes. First it clarify the concepts used in the form of literature review discussed the concrete manifestation of excess liquidity causes, effects and treatment methods, then it has been introduced a variety of methods and excess liquidity measure methods at home and abroad and compare those theory systematic.This paper argues that liquidity measure methods not only to cover the money market and capital market, but also cover the product markets; not only from the overall response to the existence of excess liquidity, but also to answer the question how much excess it has; not only from a static perspective to consider, but also dynamic consideration of the measure of excess liquidity problem. Therefore, after the selection of indicators and measurement methods this paper established a three-level indicators system of six indicators. Difference of commercial bank’s deposits and loan, difference of growth rate of deposits and loans are two indicators as a reference indicator to study the macroeconomic "Feeding system"-the banking system’s liquidity position; the value of Marshall K coefficient, the nominal money gap as two static targets, from a static perspective measure liquidity position; the monetary overhang coefficient, the total excess coefficient as the third level indicators, along the comparative analysis of money demand and supply and for real-time tracking of the basic ideas of accurate measurement of macroeconomic liquidity position.In the partment of empirical study, this paper measure banking system liquidity position from 1994 to 2007 of the data; calculated Marshall K coefficient from 1990 to 2008; reference to the practice of the European Central Bank and calculated China’s nominal money gap from 1998 to 2007; use 1998’s first quarter to the 2006’s fourth quarter data as training set, first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009 as test set, using cointegration theory and error correction model estimates of the monetary overhang coefficient, the total excess coefficient, as measured within the last 10 quarters of liquidity conditions. China’s banking system have been found to have surplus liquidity; Marshall K coefficient of our country has always been high; nominal money gap is almost close to developed economies; In addition to the fourth quarter of 2007 and 2008, in periods of the first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009 there always has excess liquidity, while in the first and second quarters of 2009, excess liquidity problem is especially serious.Finally, the paper divided the existing liquidity indicators are into three categories, discussed the characteristics of various types of indicators, application methods and application of the occasion in detail, and with China’s national conditions to make a few notes, with a view to provide a useful reference for follow-up study. |
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