Empirical Study And Credit Risk Measurement Methods Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprise In China

Risk management is the core content and everlasting task of the administration of modern commercial banks. This paper aims at analyzing and studying the risk of bank credit granted to Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) that are closely related to the credit transactions of China’s commercial banks. The economic variables affecting the credit risk of commercial banks are demonstrated and analyzed by using quantitative economic approaches combined with collecting historical data of credit granted to SME, in order to explore suitable credit risk measurement methods for SME.Long with the growing number and gradually expanding of SME, they are not only playing an increasingly important role in China’s economy, but also functions at many aspects, such as adjusting the economic structure, extending the social employment and so on. Under the restriction of the actual environment,there is only one direction to solve the financing puzzledom of SME-extending the indirect financing system,increasing debt financing derived from the bank. However, the vast majority of SME there is a relatively weak capital strength, financial systems, and anti-risk ability, coupled with our lack of a sound credit rating system and other factors, bank lending to SME will face greater credit risk. Therefore, the commercial banks to support SME development, efforts to avoid credit risk is a priority, and resolve the information asymmetry between banks and enterprises is key to avoiding credit risk, maturity of the credit risk measurement is an effective tool to solve the asymmetric information.The first chapter is the introduction section, brief background and significance of this research, research methods, the article’s logical structure, innovation and SME and the Definition of credit risk.The second chapter of a detailed analysis of the status of SME in the national economy and the financing situation, that information asymmetry between banks and enterprises is a key reason for SME financing. The third chapter is the literature review section. SectionⅠdetails the methods of foreign evolution of credit risk measurement and research. SectionⅡbriefly introduces the measure of credit risk research. SectionⅡbriefly introduces the measure of credit risk research. SectionⅢof foreign credit risk measurement methods in detail, including classical analysis, statistical analysis, artificial intelligence and modern credit risk measurement models. Most SME in non-listed company, KMV model can not scale use; of the lack of a sound credit rating system, the accumulation of little historical data, Credit Metric model and therefore can not be used due to lack of data; Credit Risk+model will be reduced to the Poisson distribution of credit risk, too arbitrary and ignores the risks specific to the debtor, but does not apply to SME. Modern credit risk measurement model is not applicable at this stage of SME in China. The banks use the existing results of the classical method is to shut out most small and medium enterprises, leading to financing difficulties. So measure the credit risk which is the most effective way of multivariate statistical analysis.ChaptersⅣandⅤis the empirical part, but also the core of the article. ChapterⅣdescribes the data sources and indicators of screening. SectionⅠdescribes the data sources:in the capital markets selected sample of 100 small and medium companies. SectionⅡpresents the 16 selected in September 2010 the financial indicators. SectionⅢof the independent samples T test indicators, obtained 10 significant differences between the financial indicators. Section 10 of the remaining indicators of significant differences in the factor analysis, to eliminate the high correlation between indicators of the impact. And draw three main factors F1, F2, F3 expression.Chapter V is the model building and empirical testing phase. Section I of the principle of the linear regression analysis. Section II describes the principle and the Logit model building process. Empirical test of the model found that:the model company for breach of contract class prediction accuracy rate of 93.33%, the company’s forecast of normal classes up to 100% accuracy, comprehensive forecast of up to 96.67% accuracy rate, indicating that the model has good predictability. Logit model came to the conclusion that the corporate default probability, to quantify the risk of corporate default, according to the probability of default to the size of intuitive risk assessment, and then combined with qualitative analysis to decide whether their lending. The qualitative and quantitative research combined with practical guidance and application.The sixth chapter is the end of this article, in the first section of this article made a general summary of the work, noting that the article has the following short comings. Section II of the work has not yet made a number of forward-looking general, pointed out that further research needs to improve.The SME credit risks measure is a new finance innovation technology with huge development potential In the developed country, such as USA and Japan,etc,many banks have established the SME credit risks measure system.However,constrained by various factors;the application of SME credit risks measure technology in many developing countries are still in limited.In China,current SME credit risks measure model is non-maturation in respect of modeling,application as well as its valid examination.The study of SME credit risks measure model has heavy responsibilities.