The Research To The Necessity Of The Establishment Of CER Futures Market In China Based On The Characteristics Of Futures Market

When the impact of climate change on Earth becomes more and more servious,the countries in the world hold series of negotiations to solve the climate problem.In the end, two international conventions which are important to the development of carbon economy are signed:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. The signing of these two conventions promotes the trading of greenhouse gas among countries and Led to the birth of the carbon economy.China is a developing country, so China can participate in the development of CDM project. The original economic development model in China is of high consumption of energy,this make the potention of carrying out CDM projects in China is enormous. In recent years, government pay more and more attention to environmental protection and sustainable economic development, and now hope that the CDM projects can help to achieve the target of environmental protection and economic restructuring. Therefore, the development of CDM projects in China is very fast. At this point, the analysis of CDM project development, the research to the establishment of CER futures market to further improve the necessity of a carbon exchange, and gaining a clear idea of the current status and the future of the development of CDM projects are necessary.The main content of this article contains four parts:In the first part,by analyzing the achievements, shortcomings and development in the current international situation of the CDM project development, the article formate the understanding of the status of CDM project development.In the second part, the article discusses the qualifications of the establishment of CER futures market in China, and the impact of CER futures market after the establishment.In this section, the first test of the CER futures price and spot price relationship finds that they do not show a price discovery function in the process of CER price formatting and the spot price also plays a leading role. Then, analyzing the correlation between the futures prices of the two most important carbon product:CER and EUA, finds the influence of CER Futures prices on the EUA futures price is more Large. Finally, testing the price discovery function of the EUA futures markets,finds that the cash price and futures price is related to guidance and futures prices play a leading role in the process of price formation,this is,the price discovery function is effective in the EUA futures markers.Finally, the article gives some suggestions on the different places of the CER futures market from the general commodity futures markets.The article focuses on the compilation of data and theoretical analysis.Based on the theoretical analysis, the article also do empirical research by a large number of test methods, such as Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Functions and so. by these methods, the article rules out some features of the CER futures market. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, the necessity of China’s CER futures market is proved, this provides support to the establishment of CER futures market.