| Since the reform of non-tradable shares, China’s securities market has made considerable progress and development.As of now China has established the main board in Shanghai and Shenzhen, small and medium enterprises board, the GEM board in Shenzhe.Listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached more than 2000, the various sectors of the national economy. With the development of China’s securities market, investors are becoming more mature, investment philosophy and strategy are more and rich.Industry configuration is an important source of income for excess. With the expanding of institutional investors, listed companies in the rapid increase in number, a unit of the stocks for institutional investors performance contribution has been reduced, the industry is particularly important to the configuration. Industry fund, which is oriented to industry, which investment is limited to a certain industry or a few features similar to the industry,with a view from the industry surplus with the rapid growth in income, to avoid concentration of individual companies shoulder higher investment risks. The first issue of Fortune SG Fund Management Co. Ltd of consumer goods industries Kang Bo fund, established in July,2003. The number of listed companies and trade growth in the increasingly rich variety of industries fund type Fund as a breakdown in China will have a lot of room for development. The number of listed companies and trade growth in the increasingly rich variety of industries fund type Fund as a breakdown in China will have a lot of room for development. In particular in the country’s economic restructuring and the beginning of the newly emerging industries, at present, the industry theme of the Fund is vigorous development, particularly the consumption and emerging industries thematic funds.Sector Rotation, by definition, is in the market in the course of development, investment from a trade point to another industry. Researching industry round of the law and practice of direct investment had a very important role not only can it help ordinary investors buy industry directly in the market share, beyond the excess income market, but also guide investors in different periods purchase different sectors of the Fund; As for institutional investors generally used "top" first elections to select a unit of the industry investment strategy and the movement of trade law, can have a dominant for investment, there is a good start in the direction to be beyond the investment market. An effective securities market, should not be "the same change" in the market price, the industry movement laws, but also better guidance in testing the effectiveness market.ML’s Investment Clock splits the economic cycle into four separate phases, depending on the direction of growth the diagram tend to outperform while those in the opposite corner tend to underperform. The classic boom-bust cycle starts at the bottom left and moves around clockwise with Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and Cash outperforming in turn. Life is not always so simple. Sometimes the clock moves backwards or skips a phase. We will be making judgments on the future stage of the global economic cycle in our asset allocation research.The Investment Clock framework helps investors to recognize the important turning points in the economy and identifies investments to take best advantage of a change. We split the economic cycle into four phases—Reflation, Recovery, Overheat and Stagflation.In Reflation, GDP growth is sluggish. Excess capacity and falling commodity prices drive inflation lower. Profits are weak and real yields drop. Yield curves shift downwards and steepen as central banks cut short rates in an attempt to get the economy back onto its sustainable growth path. Bonds are the best asset class.In Recovery, policy ease takes effect and GDP growth accelerates to an above trend rate. However, inflation continues to fall because spare capacity has not yet been used up and cyclical productivity growth is strong. Profits recover sharply but central banks keep policy loose and bond yields stay low. This is the sweet spot of the cycle for equity investors. Stocks are the best asset class.In Overheat, productivity growth slows, capacity constraints come to the fore and inflation rises. Central banks hike rates to bring the economy back down to its sustainable growth path, but GDP growth remains stubbornly above trend. Bonds do badly as yield curves shift upwards and flatten. Stock returns depend on a trade-off between strong profits growth and the valuation de-rating that often accompanies a sell-off in bonds. Commodities are the best asset class.In Stagflation, GDP growth slows below trend but inflation keeps rising, often due in part to oil shocks. Productivity slumps and a wage-price spiral develop as companies raise prices to protect their margins. Only a sharp rise in unemployment can break the vicious circle. Central banks are reluctant to ease until inflation peaks, limiting the scope for bonds to rally. Cash is the best asset class.The Clock helps with Equity Sector StrategyA second advantage is that it helps us think about sector strategy:Cyclicality:When growth is accelerating (North), Stocks and Commodities do well. Cyclical sectors like Tech or Steel out-perform. When growth is slowing (South), Bonds, Cash and defensives outperform.Duration:When inflation is falling (West), discount rates drop and financial assets do well. Investors pay up for long duration Growth stocks. When inflation is rising (East), real assets like Commodities and Cash do best. Pricing power is plentiful and short-duration Value stocks outperform.Interest Rate-Sensitive’s:Banks and Consumer Discretionary stocks are interest-rate sensitive early cycle performers, doing best in Reflation and Recovery when central banks are easing and growth are starting to recover.Asset Plays:Some sectors are linked to the performance of an underlying asset. Insurance stocks and Investment Banks are often bond or equity price-sensitive, doing well in the Reflation or Recovery phases. Mining stocks are metal price-sensitive, doing well during an Overheat. Oil & Gas is sensitive to the oil price, outperforming in bouts of Stagflation.This applied research by cluster analysis and related analysis. Cluster analysis group, also known as analysis, it is to study (samples or indicators) Category A pluralistic statistical methods, such as the saying goes, popular, that is similar to those elements of the Assembly. Cluster analysis is not known in advance to the Division, based on information gathered information similar to the time. Together with the aim is to make a category of individuals belonging to the differences between the small as possible, and the different categories, the difference between the individual as much as possible. Related analysis of the main purpose is to seek to describe the specific number of research in the close relationship between the variables and their change and seek mutual relations, in order to facilitate statistical projections and assumptions, and to make a correct decision on the basis for reference.Movement of the Law of the industry, the relatively small, are in the initial stage of the round of trade, also remained stuck in a sense of image, the stage, the lack of theoretical basis. This article is to explore and study the laws governing trade round plate, and to explain. In order to achieve this objective, the article in the sample interval Shin 10,000 A index is divided into eight relatively large increase in the decrease in each stage of the trends in various industries and a description of the accumulated earnings trend analysis, a number plate movement of the industry’s image and perceptions. This article, and then selects industry index relevant factors, an average income decline in prices as a variable sections, each stage of the industry trend analysis carried out together in a bid to 23 Shenyin first levels in four major industries, and the stages of the cluster a comparative analysis of various markets in order to arrive at a background of the category of the law. This article from two aspects to study law industry movement to trends in each phase 23 Shenyin first level different sections of the price level industry index fell for the study, with a view to finding a trade plate movement of some laws; this decline in prices from each of the relationship between the business sector Index Analysis of the round of trade laws. The article applied the investment clock theory, the economic cycle is divided into different stages of the market share my movement for the law. The article applied the investment clock theory, the economic cycle is divided into different stages of the market share my a movement for the law. Conclusion of the study found.Industry movement in the A stock market did exist, and moving round results and market trends related to the rising trend of moving round effects than the apparent decline;Industry cluster shin industry into four categories of cycle and consumer industry’s movement more obvious results of the cycle of movement and light industries is not clear, in particular the specific time in the context of the market will become clear, and in most of the whole period of time to market rate of return;Sections from price decline in the perspective of cycle industries and the consumer industries moving more obvious results;Cumulative rate of return on average more relevant factor in the industry, mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the movement is not very clear results; and the smaller the industry average related factors, the more independent and able to walk out, these industries to cycle industries, such industries are the most obvious movement; the average market related factors background changes in the industry more movement is more apparent;A stock different market share market movement against the background of the industry is generally applied the investment clock theory, but this is the thick lines, it is not sufficient. |
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