International Project Contractor Enterprise Exchange Rate Risk Forecast And Management Study

In recent years，native construction will face production peak also meaning underthe construction market saturation pressure, with the deepening of the globalizationprocess, native construction must convergence with the international market to makeour country construction enterprise long, sustained and good development. Therefore,it’s the only way that our country construction enterprise go abroad into internationalmarket. China international engineering contracting enterprise to enter into internationalmarket will inevitably face volatile international exchange rate changes, the ability ofexchange rate risk management determines whether our country internationalengineering contracting enterprise can foothold in the international market anddevelopment.Based on thorough study on the international project contracting enterprisedevelopment present situation and international market exchange rate risk and exchangerate risk management, international project contracting enterprise is comprehensivestudied, the exchange rate risk facing qualitative analysis, and analyses influence theyuan appreciation on international project contracting enterprise cost and profit;established forecasting model of RMB exchange rate based on time series, usingstatistical software DPS for data time series data test, establish ARIMA(2,1,1)model on the basis of dynamic data in test results accord with modeling,and then tsetthe model fitting, finally predict the middle price of the renminbi-dollar rateaccurately with ARIMA (2,1,1) model; establish international engineering contractingenterprise exchange rate risk management framework system of international projectcontracting enterprise, identify the exchange rate risk, combining the middle priceprediction by time series prediction of the renminbi-dollar rate of measuringinternational engineering contracting enterprise transaction risks compiled by risk degree, and international engineering contracting enterprise transaction risks, accordingto a report by the risk degree by risk degree transaction risks of dollars short positionsreport net metering exchange rate risk exposure size; Consider the renminbi-dollar rateto convert a prediction of the middle price risk and economic comprehensive analysis,combined with the risk of exchange rate risk exposure metering, comprehensiveconsideration of the various factors on international project contracting enterprise lastaway from exchange rate risk management, put forward measures and suggestions forinternational engineering contracting enterprise avoid exchange rate risk and improvethe competitiveness of international engineering contracting enterprise.