A Quantization Research On The Objective Of Medium And Long Term Economic And Social Development Planing

Medium and long-term planning of the economy and society is of great significance toChinese economic and social development. It is an extension of the Government’smacro-control function. In General, objectives of the plan is quantified by two major steps.Firstly, building a index system that could measure the development of economy and societycomprehensively. Second, utilize the scientific system method to predict the level ofabove-chosen index. The review of studies associated with quantifying the medium andlong-term planning aims found that the research which contains these two areas were rarelyseen.This paper adopt medium and long-term planning of Guangdong Province as an example, itmainly refers to ‘the reform and development plan of the Pearl River Delta:2008-2020’ andGuangdong Province ‘Twelve-Five’ plans. First, through summarizing the theory about theways of constructing a index planning system, then, analyzing the problems based on28indicators given in the main target decomposition of implementation of the Pearl River Deltaprogram in2012, Constructing a new index system. Secondly, use Back Propagation neuralnetwork model to predict the new index system which could measure ’the Pearl River Deltaprogram’, and use input-output method to predict the tendency of coordination between thethree industry developments during the period of Guangdong Province ’Twelve-Five’.It was found that we need to rebuild the index system which could measure the aims of ’ThePearl River Delta program’. The new quantified aims and the28indicators given in ‘the formof decomposition’ become a macro and micro quantified target, it can promotethe implementation of the Pearl River Delta program. we need to carry on a trackingstudy about long-term planning index system, adjust the index system sustainably to helpscientifically draw up a medium and long-term planning. In the aspect of methodsresearch, we should follow the principle of appropriateness, but the more complicated themore accurate.