The Effect Of Cash Flow Forecasts On Accrual Quality And Benchmark Beating

With the improvement of capital market effectiveness, the attention of investors for thepredictive information increase gradually, analysts’ earnings forecast information has becomean important source of future information for listed companies to investors. Since the functionof the analysts as information intermediaries in the capital market is more and more important,the center of gravity of the earnings management also gradually began to shift. The existing ofearnings management research mainly from the surplus of persistent and reaction coefficient,and less from cash flow to operating cash flow especially analysts forecast earningsmanagement to study.Therefore, based on the theory of the existing accrual quality and earnings management,this paper will try to one of the connotation of the further exploration, and find out theabnormal accrued items and other abnormal projects in the overall index startingfrom the cashflow forecast; Secondly, according to its theoretical basis, summarize the plan of the projectmanagement and real earnings management activities of the evaluation standard; And withcash flow forecast as a reference, collecting2007-2010data of the listed company in two cityof Shenzhen and ShangHai, with a difference in difference model as a starting point, the maincomparing earnings management of different companies before and after cash flowprojections, and the same company’way of earnings management before and after cash flowforecast, and do amendment and extension based on China’s economic and environmentalcharacteristics,as well as adapt to our target the revision and expanded research. Inaddition,we also choose a revision of the cross section Jones model to identify whether alisted company use handling accrued to manage earnings, and carries on the t-test. Finally,combined with our accounting features design a comprehensive earnings management model,conduct a regression analysis at last.The results confirm in cash flow forecast data after the announcement, the listedcompanies in China by existing accrued project control to reality of manipulating the surplusearnings management behavior, accrued quality increase; Also shows that cash flows forecastof the analysts both have an inhibitory effect on the earnings management of listed companiesin China and provide space for earnings management.