| Since the reform and opening up, the residents’ living standard in china’s urban and rural is rising，and consumption of agricultural products is continue to rise. Agricultural production has been basically completed the situation of supply shortage. The direction of the agricultural products has turned buyers’ market to sellers’ one. Supply and demand situation changes, leading to increasingly fierce market competition, market risks continue to emerge. Accession to the World Trade Organization, agricultural producers are facing a greater risk of agricultural markets； Therefore, to develop early warning research and prevention has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper studies the theory, based on the methods of qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and case analysis to carry out the theoretical and empirical research on early warning of the agricultural price, and micro warning is organically combined with macro warning. Comprehensive analysis our law in the characteristics of agricultural price changes, the system analyzes the impact of various factors agricultural products’ prices in, which reveals the basic law of agricultural prices in China and explores the theory of agricultural early warning. Early warning indicator system was constructed and completed a system related to early warning function.The purpose of early warning in prices of agricultural products is to grasp the operation of agricultural price trend for the abnormal situation in a timely manner to its regulation and ensure markets for agricultural products continued healthy and stable development. Paper according to four steps which is theory study, system modeling, evaluation index, function achievement start to research gradually:First of all, previous studies on early warning fields, especially in early warning and price-related research class to understand and learn, the purpose is to clarify the basic theory of common early warning and research methods and understand the research level of alert at home and abroadSecond, the purpose that to establish early warning systems architecture, and data warehousing in the price of agricultural products is to get the useful information in the analysis of huge price data, complete the sublimation of data information. At the same time, using the AHP evaluation method, an example of pork prices, we analyzed and evaluated the impact of agricultural prices’ indicators, and establish relevant evaluation system.Third, synthesized the studies of other scholars, KLR prediction model based on wavelet theory is to be put forward. Importing the related data and experiments of the price of pork in2010Anhui Province is to prove the fact that the accuracy of early warning has risen under the work of KLR model in wavelet theory, and more fit with the requirement of the agricultural products prices’ warning.These paper main innovations have two. One is put forward based on the wavelet theory KLR signal warning technology enables warning index threshold set more reasonable, can automatically generate warning, improve the accuracy and efficiency of early warning The second is pork prices, for example, the factors affecting agricultural prices establishing indexes evaluation system, using AHP evaluation analysis, the main factors affecting the price and the proportion of each factor for future weights, and similar studies to provide ideas and basis.Through the above theoretical analysis, expand the system design and development of each functional module, specifically including the early warning module, Price monitoring module, Cost information management module and price information dissemination module, the main features include price information gathering, early warning publishing and communications, early warning statistical analysis, Warning parameter settings and so on. |
