The Design And Realization Of An Integrated Analysis System Of Anhui’s Drought And Waterlog Monitoring

In recent years, extreme weather frequently occurs around the world, which bringsmore and more severe life and property damage to almost all nations. Our country is ofno exception. Anhui province is in China’ geographic division of the south and thenorth, and it is one of the regions frequent with natural disasters. Among the naturaldisasters, drought and waterlog are of great destructive power and the broadestinfluence. They cause serious economic losses and some casualties every year.Therefore, strengthening drought and waterlog effective analysis and forecasting hasbecome necessary and urgent.With the dense distribution of meteorological stations and the obtainment of overallinformation, it has been recognized as a problem that the meteorological information istoo massive and the analysis of meteorological data is complicated and inefficient.Drought and waterlog monitoring and analysis is an important part of themeteorological work, and the department has done a great number of experiments inmonitoring drought and waterlog, and has carried out some practical work, but resultsare often unsatisfactory. Divergences exist in the choosing of drought and waterlogstandard levels, which will lead to huge differences of monitoring results, thus it ishard to make an accurate judgment about the future trend of drought and waterlog. Asa result, it is particularly important to establish an appropriate system of index andstandard levels, which can be a basis for a real-time monitoring and analysis platform.Based on the data of precipitation, temperature and other meteorological elementsfrom every automatic meteorological station, this thesis has established Anhui’sdrought and waterlog monitoring system of index and standard levels, which can helprealize real-time monitoring and accurate forecast by using data mining technology.The specific work it has finished is as following:(1) It has calculated the five drought and waterlog indexes of every month throughthe using of meteorological observation in the historical data. According to the needsof statistical and theoretical frequency of index levels, it has newly classified thestandard levels of drought and waterlog that are suitable for the distribution of Anhuiprecipitation.(2) It has sorted the various statistical indexes closely related to drought andwaterlog monitoring business, and then formed drought and waterlog monitoring indexsystem. It has designed and established an integrated analysis system of Anhui’sdrought and waterlog monitoring, which can help deal with the real-time meteorological data immediately and efficiently.(3) Through the using of data mining technology and time series based on the trendof the structure, it has excavated the sequence of time formed by Anhui’s historicalinformation and real-time information of drought and waterlog, in order to forecast theregional future trend of drought and waterlog in every areas.