Sales Forecasts Based On BP Neural Network

With the development of economic globalization, market competition is intensified, in order to conquer the market, the enterprise must understand the rules of market economy, grasp opportunities, make accurate predictions about the future of the market. And effective market forecast is based on a careful study of various market factors, so the enterprise must do a good job in research and data collection,then make scientific market forecast. Only guarantee the accuracy of the forecast, the enterprise can make correct marketing strategy, ultimately win the market.This article first introduces several traditional market prediction theory and forecast method, and analyzes their advantages and disadvantages in detail. With the development of computer technology, the market forecast can use some software to implement the simulation analysis, due to the simulation analysis has the advantages of cheap, fast and repeatable, and is not affected by factors (such as time, place), so the computer simulation technology is widely applied in the prediction process. Integration of forecasting and decision-making will be the focus of future prediction research.Product sales was mainly determined by market demand. And Changes in market demand were complex. The influencing factors of enterprise product sales is diverse, non-linear. In the existing level of science and technology, it is difficult to establish a precise mathematical model of a complex nonlinear system, but we can make a prediction interval sense and close to the real value of the forecast.The neural network has obvious advantages in dealing with missing values and nonlinear problems. This paper described the research and development of neural networks to analyze the structural model, interconnect model, learning algorithms and information processing capacity,and analysed of the structure of BP neural network and δ learning rule, and introduced the MATLAB toolbox oriented neural network design.On the basis of police handcuffs’ sales of JiangSu ANHUA Police Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. from2000to2011, by learning, training, simulation MATLAB neural network,we have predicted and simulated the company’s police handcuffs sales in2012. Enterprises tend to choose to develop new products to expand product market share, therefore, we also do the prediction research of New product market prospect. Simulation results show that the neural network to forecast business sales forecast has high accuracy and good generalization ability, it provided a new way of thinking for the sales forecast, also provide effective technical support for enterprise managers’ scientific decision.