A Wind Speed Forecasting System Based On Support Vector Machine

Today with energy resource crisis becomes more severe, using and developing of new energy resource is attracting more and more attention. Among these renewable energy resources, wind power is widely used. However, the randomness of wind power brings a series of problems to power system operation. When large-scale wind farms are integrated to power grid, a great burden will act on the security and stability of power grid In order to resolve the problem, wind speed forecasting and wind power forecasting were proposed and wind speed forecasting is an indirect way to wind power forecasting. Through the forecasting of wind speed, the randomness of wind power will reduce, which can effectively alleviate the adverse effects on power system. In recent years, wind forecasting has made some progress, but there are also shortcomings, it has rooms for further research.According to the consulted literatures and references, this paper reviewed and summarized the techniques on the short-term forecast model of wind speed, it was found that the precision of single forecast model needed to improve. Because of the advantages of support vector machines and combined forecast model, this paper presented a wind speed forecast model based on least square support vector machine. The combined forecast model which optimized by least square support vector machine could synthesize many kinds of message in single model. The forecasted wind speed which calculated by BP neural networks、RBF neural networks and genetic neural networks was separately set as the input of the combined model , the actual wind speed was set as the output of the combined model, then the forecast model was build based on the self-learning capability of the support vector machine. At the same time, this thesis elaborated the Linear combination forecast model which was used to analysis the performance of wind speed forecast model based on least square support vector machine. In order to compare the forecast performance of all kinds model, the average absolute deviation、average relative deviation、square deviation were used to analysis the forecast results. A simulation system was designed during MATLAB, the simulation results showed that the presented model could improve the accuracy of the wind speed forecast. The feasibility of the presented model was verified by the studied samples which the wind speeds per hour were in jiangxi Laoyemiao.Finally, the wind speed forecasting system is established based on MATLAB/GUI to promote convenience on further study. The system can adjust the parameters of the model; setting predict times, selecting model and so on. Simulation results show that the system achieved obvious advantage compared to the original programs; it is proved the feasibility of wind forecasting system.