| Olympics is a comprehensive sports game in the world, organized by theInternational Olympic Committee, and is the biggest sports game in the scale andimpact of the world. It is a important platform for nations for cultural exchange andsports competition and collaboration, and is also a import window for nations to showtheir images and combined strength. Track and field is one of the largest affecting andthe most gold medals in the Olympic Games, and it becomes one of the most hot items.That "who win the track and field, and who will win the world" has become thecommon consensus in sports. However, the track and field results of Olympics arerelated with many factors, and these factors have their own characteristics ofdeveloping trend and nature, and it’ll make sports performance uncertain. From theview of system science, Olympics track and field is a dynamic and complex system,how to establish scientific and accurate prediction model of sports scores, and to studysports respective characteristics and development trends in the future, has widerpractical significance and far-reaching affect. Using the methods of literatures,statistical, grey prediction and others, the article conducted a comparative in-depthstudy of the track and field achievements of Olympics with grey prediction theory andits development trend. This’ll provide scientific theory basis for coaches and sportsworkers to make strategic objectives and training plan in the Olympic games.The study concluded the following conclusions:1. The GM (1,1) models of Olympic track and field results, established in thisarticle have high precision, where one model has the forecast accuracy of100%; sixmodels’ forecast accuracy are greater than99.99%; six models’ forecast accuracy aregreater than above98.45%; and the rest models’ predictive accuracy are greater than99%. Those models may be used for short-term prediction, measuring campaign resultsforecasts, and also suitable for personal performance predictions.2. The development trend of Olympics track events and road race project: mosttrack events and road races projects are rising trend, but their speed is different. Thefast project is man top three5,000m; in man top three,20km race walk,1500m,400mof the2nd place,400m hurdles,4×100m relay are downward trend; in woman top three 4×100m relay,4x100m in the2nd place and3rd place400m hurdles and400m, are inthe decline clearly. In the road race, the development of men’s Marathon is rising trend,while women’s Marathon was declining trend.3. The development trend of Olympics field events and combined events: in themen’s1th place, the upward trend order from strong to weak is decathlon, shot put,pole vault, Javelin and high jump, and triple jump, discus and long jump are downwardtrend obviously, particularly in long jump. In the men’s2nd and3rd, projects’ risingdevelopment trends are the same roughly, the trend order from strong to weak ishammer throw, high jump and triple jump, while other projects have decline trend,particularly in pole vault, Javelin and long jump obviously. In the women’s1th and2ndplace, the upward trend showing the most notably is Javelin; in the women’s top three,rising trends is less heat: heptathlon, high jump, triple jump, long jump (the3rd placeexcepted) and shot put (1th place excepted), and the discus has shown an obviousdownward trend in the top three.4. In China, events of the Olympic track and field show a steady developmenttrend, and overall results have been improving, and some of them are close to the levelof Olympic medal. In2012, the superior track and field events in competition at theOlympic Games in China are the women’s5,000m and women’s shot put, women’sdiscus, women’s Marathon, women’s hammer throw, women’s shot put, women’s discus,women’s20km race walk, the men’s110m hurdles, men’s high jump, men’s pole vault,men’s long jump, men’s20km race walk. These are the most expected medal events intrack and field projects in the2012London Olympic Games. |
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