Wind Farms Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting Research And Design Of The System

With the increasing depletion of fossil fuels and the resulting environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, the world spare no effort to develop renewable energy generating technology. Wind power as clean and regenerated energy has attracted increasing attention. Under different wind farms and different operating conditions, uncertainty of overall wind power input and its dynamic characteristics influences the wind power connecting to the system and thermal power plant peak. Accurate prediction of the overall wind power output is favorable to power system stability, which is basis for safe and efficient use of large-scale wind power. Because of the single prediction model in learning method bias, optimization strategy, and other aspects, obtained the model from training only reflects one aspect of the uncertainty of the wind speed, easy in local optimum.Analysis and discussion are made in details about the theory of short term wind speed prediction model with least square support vector machine based on particle swarm optimization (PSO-LS-SVM) and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in predicting and modeling in this paper, and the prediction model is optimized, the result shows that the pole and partial model improve the prediction accuracy further more. The main works are as follows:The study on statistical rules of historical data collected in the wind farm is done first. Some conclusions will be used later. The prediction models are built by using least square support vector machine based on particle swarm optimization and autoregressive integrated moving average model separately. This model is used to predict the wind speed next48hours. The prediction accuracy is improved by using pole and partial model and meets the technical requirements.Real-time wind speed prediction and analysis system is developed by Matlab GUI. It has an attractive menu and control components human-computer interaction interface. The system has the openness and scalability by modular design concept.Finally, the paper summarizes the topics discussed, and the study should be enhanced and improved in the following works which is pointed out.