Study On Allocation Of Manpower And Beds Of Health Institutions In Hunan Province

ObjectiveTo explore current situation, dynamic trends, fairness and balance of health manpower and bed resources in Hunan province, and compare different prediction methods. Investigate suitable standard for health manpower and beds allocation in Hunan Province.MethodsData obtained through Hunan Health Statistics Summary, Health Statistics Yearbook in China and so on. Adopt ratio, dynamic series analysis, Gini coefficient, Health Resources Density Index to explore status of health manpower and bed allocation in Hunan province. Select the health demands/needs method, the services efficiency target method, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to predict the standard for health manpower and beds allocation of Hunan Province in2010and2015.ResultThere were14,175health workers and4.80people per1,000population in the end of2010, in which there were233275beds and3.55beds per1,000population, the major indexes like health manpower and beds per1,000population were lower than the national average. The number of health technological personnel for1000persons was3.70, doctors and nurses per1,000population were1.59,1.40. Ratio of doctor to nurse is1:0.88.Development of the amount of health workers and beds was relatively flat from1990to2004, rapidly increased from2005to2010. Health beds, health workers, health technicians, doctors, nurses, the number increased by57.8%,28.4%,28.5%,15.6%,61.2%in2010than in2004.The Gini-coefficient was0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19of beds, health workers, health technicians, doctors, nurses in Hunan Province in2010according to the population distribution, of which the Gini-coefficient was0.27,0.30,0.29,0.30,0.33according to the distribution by area.The number of health technological personnel of per square kilometer were4.13in Changsha City,7.12times that of Zhangjiajie City. The geographical distribution of health resources is uneven in human Province.The standard for doctors allocation is129064～182644by the health demands/needs method in2010, doctors per1,000population is1.82～2.58. The standard for health beds allocation is161497～243433, health beds per1,000population is2.28-3.71.The standard for doctors allocation is74466～101136by the services efficiency target method, doctors per1,000population is1.05～1.43. The standard for health beds allocation is182939～274408, health beds per1,000population is2.58～3.87.The standard for doctors per1,000population allocation is1.14～1.38by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in2010。The standard for health beds allocation is198464～234361, health beds per1,000population is3.04～3.42.Conclusions1. There were4.80health workers per1,000population in the end of2010in Human Province, lower than the national average. The amount of health manpower resource was inadequate. The number of health beds for1000persons was close to the national average and beds resource was moderate.2. The health manpower and beds resource was equity in general, but uneven in geographical distribution.3. The number of doctors and nurses per1,000population were1.59, 1.40, Ratio of nurse to doctor is i:0.88. The number of nurses did not assort with doctors.4. Three methods for the prediction of the standard for doctor allocation have their own advantages and shortcomings, this article recommend the health demands/needs method. The prediction of the health bed is good by three method, studies have shown that the services efficiency target method is better than other two method.5. The standard for doctors per1,000population allocation will be (2.08,2.94),(1.20,1.63),(1.04,1.41) by the health demands/needs method, the services efficiency target method and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in2015, by which the standard for health beds per1,000population allocation will be (3.59,5.41)、(4.07,6.10)、(2.80,4.13)...