Study On The Epidemic Characteristics Of Syphilis And Gonorrhea And The Trend Forecast In A Certain Province

ObjectivesThis study is to analyze the epidemic characteristics of syphilis and gonorrhea in a certain province from2006to2010.Epidemiological tendency of the incidence of syphilis and gonorrhea from2011to2015in the province were forecasted with Grey Forecasting Model. Puts forward the control of syphilis and gonorrhea measures and suggestions. and provide the accurate basis for formulation of syphilis and gonorrhea prevention and treatment planning for the relevant department.MethodsThis paper mainly used the literature methodology, expert interview method to analysis the epidemic characteristics of syphilis and gonorrhea from the year2006to2010in a certain province.By use of Excel2007and SPSS13.0to the data collected and statistical analysis. According to the reported data of syphilis and gonorrhea from2006to2010. the author uses the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model to predict trends incidence of syphilis and gonorrhea the next five years in the province.ResultsDuring2006～2010,26910cases of syphilis were reported.the average annual incidence rate of syphilis was15.66/lakh. The reported case of syphilis increased by years from3430in2006to7464in2010,the incidence of syphilis increased from10.16/lakh to21.04/lakh, it has been increasing gradually.The male-to-female ratio of syphilis cases was1.12:1.1.06:1,1.01:1,1.04:1.1.02:1respectively,the proportion of male and female tend to balance.The reported cases for male was13738,the incidence increased from10.50/lakh to20.58/lakh,the average annual incidence was15.60/lakh; The reported cases for female was13172,the incidence increased from9.81/lakh to21.20/lakh,the average annual incidence was15.73/lakh;the reported cases in the top three occupations were farmers, housework and unemployed workers,the number of cases were9315,3615,3479,it accounted for34.62%、13.43%、12.93%respectively.30～59ages group had the most cases,it accounted for47.28%;Over60years old age group also accounted for a large proportion of the report case, accounting for34.91%of the total number; from0to14years old accounting for2.11%of the number of total cases.During2006～2010,7981cases of gonorrhea were reported, the average annual incidence rate of gonorrhea was4.61/lakh. The reported case of gonorrhea decreased by the years2133in2006to1187in2010,the incidence of gonorrhea decreased from6.32/lakh to3.32/lakh, it has been decreasing gradually. The male-to-female ratio of gonorrhea cases was2.79:1,3.04:1,3.36:1,3.95:1,3.71:1respectively. The reported cases for male was6047, the incidence decreased from9.10/lakh to5.09/lakh. the average annual incidence was6.87/lakh; The reported cases for female was1871,the incidence decreased from3.41/lakh to1.51/lakh,the average annual incidence was2.23/lakh;the reported cases in the top three occupations were farmers. workers,others,the number of cases were2422,1243,896,it accounted for30.59%、15.70%、11.32%respectively.15～44age group had the most cases,it accounted for75.68%;45～59age group also accounted for a large proportion of the report case, accounting for14.89%of the total number; Over75years old age group accounting for0.88%of the number of total cases. According to the prediction of the established model,the incidence rates of syphilis in2011～2015were24.56/lakh,28.66/lakh,33.44/lakh,39.02/lakh,45.53/lakh,the prognosticating precision of GM(1,1)was excellent in accordance with the criterion of grey model prognostication assessment.According to the prediction of the established model,the incidence rates of gonorrhea in2011-2015were2.51/lakh,2.07/lakh,1.70/lakh,1.40/lakh,1.15/lakh, the prognosticating precision of GM(1,1) was excellent in accordance with the criterion of grey model prognostication assessment.ConclusionsThe incidence of syphilis increased in the province during2006～2010,it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of syphilis by effective intervention measure; the incidence of gonorrhea decreased, But still can not be ignored.The incidence rate of syphilis in the province has a rising tend in next five years, efforts should be taken to strengthen the comprehensive preventive measurement for syphilis such as health education, therapy management and so on;the incidence of gonorrhea has a downtrend next five years, but all kinds of risk factors still exist, the relevant departments should enhance propaganda, control the spread of disease.