Dynamic Prediction Of Soil Erosion Sensitivity In Shuozhou City Based On Markov Model

It is gradually increased in soil erosion, which is caused by the change of land use on human activities and unreasonable development in natural resources. The assessment of soil erosion sensitivity, as a bridge between soil erosion and the sensitive degree of human activities, is able to identify clearly the prone areas of soil erosion, direct the control of soil erosion. Significant change on land use and cover change is result from frequent human activities, due to the soil erosion intensely. Therefore, the combination of LUCC and assessment of soil erosion sensitivity is the key to manage soil erosion is caused by human activities.The main source to Shouzhou city in1993、2002and2010is three RS images of landsat5TM, the LUCC and the character on dynamic change in nearly20yeares is exteacted by the RS images. Combined with the topographic maps, digital elevation model (DEM), distribution map of soil type and the information of natural, social, economic statistics,the soil erosion sensitivity of Shuozhou City in1993,2002and2010was assessed comprehensively under the technology of RS and GIS. Moreover, after analysis of distribution characteristics of the grade on soil erosion sensitivity, using the Markov Model, the change of grade on sensitivity was simulated and the tendency of the sensitivity in the next20years was predicted. The results are as follows:(1) the sensitivity grade of soil erosion in Shuozhou city, which varied in terms of the amouunts and mutual transfer in the different grade for these three years, is the areas of slight and moderate sensitive up to82%, the insensitive areas account for about14%, the strong and extremely sensitive area is about4%.(2) Meanwhile, it is reasonable and correct to forecast trend of soil erosion sensitivity with Markov Model, because there are basically consistent with simulation and actual values. According to Markov Model, it is predicted that insensitive and slight sensitive on grade of soil erosion sensitivity will gradually reduce. On the contrary, moderate, strong and extremely sensitive will increase year by year between2013to2033.(3) The combination of LUCC and assessment of soil erosion sensitivity, pattern and process can be analysis effective and is the scientific support for the sustainable development of social economic、resources and the environment.In short, the change of vegetation cover causing by human activities, is not only the major reason for the changes of soil erosion sensitivity, but also the key to slow down and control the soil erosion.