Urban Public Transit Service Reliability Evaluation Method Research

Today, traffic jam has become a common phenomenon in the cities of the world.Making a priority to the development of public transport is the mainstream of easing traffic jam、saving energy. However, the development of public transportation in our country is not desirable, the service level is low, which will affect the choice of the passengers in transit way and due to a low attraction. The poor transit service reliability is the main reason of the low transit service level. The evaluation of transit service reliability will help to improve the transit service level.This article selects the nature of bus running on time as the indicator of reliability evaluation. Firstly, evaluate the static reliability based on the historical data. Secondly, wiht the analysis of influence among the sites, evaluate the real-time reliability based on the real-time data. Thirdly, with the prediction of future bus operational data, evaluate the predictive reliability based on the predictive data. With12bus lines in Guiyang as an example, this article establishs information database of city bus and has carried on the overall evaluation in Guiyang on the static、the real-time and prediction. Combined with the traffic characteristics, analyz the transit service reliability in different conditions.Research has shown that the static reliability results is low and real-time reliability are quite different with static reliability. The predictive reliability is accurate compared with the real time data. We can consider to improve bus service reliability by bus scheduling according to the real-time reliability and prediction reliability, so as to improve the service level of public transport system.