Land Use Change Prediction Research Of Changji City

Application of TM remote sensing images with CA-MARKOV model in urbanland use change prediction research, more accurate simulation and forecast of landuse conditions in the future, through the analysis of land use change, can in timediscover and solve the problems that exist in the process of optimizing land usepattern, give play to economic social and ecological benefits of land, realize thesustainable development of land use, complete the ultimate goal of urban land usechange prediction research. This thesis to land use/land cover change (LUCC),geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing (RS) technology, MARKOVMARKOV model and cellular automata (CA) model as the theory instruction,application of ENVI4.7, sky planning and basic software and17.0Sleva IDRISIsoftware, to changji three phase six scene preprocessing, classification of remotesensing image interpretation of land utilization present situation chart, throughcomprehensive analysis of changji, in waters, land use, the development of land,transportation and location factors such as the change of land use suitability generatedatlas global transformation rules to build CA-MARKOV model, MARKOVtransition probability matrix is used to establish the model of local transformationrules, CA-MARKOV model is applied to forecast changji2015land use status, landuse change analysis. The results to predict the evolution process provides a newmethod for land use and provide scientific basis for land use planning, auxiliarychangji bureau of land and resources and relevant departments for land planning andmanagement work.This paper mainly completed the following several aspects:(1) to changji,2006,2011,1998, a total of three phase six scene remote sensingimage preprocessing, classification and interpretation, the land utilization presentsituation chart accordingly.(2) applied in IDRISI MARKOV module to generate two sets of land use transition probability matrix, the MCE and COLLETION EDIT module generate the land usesuitability atlas, set number of iterations run CA-MARKOV model and relatedparameters, generate2011changji land use forecast figure, through the analysis ofpresent status in2011and using KAPPA index precision inspection, determine thereliable forecast results, the model have the feasibility.(3) the application of CA-2015changji MARKOV model of land use changeprediction and dynamic analysis.