Probabilistic Production Simulation Of Power System With Wind Power Penetration

Wind power is the most competitive low-carbon energy in China. Large-scale wind power penetration is one of the primary means to achieve low-carbon scheduling of power system. However, wind power has both positive and negative impact on overall system energy consumption and CO2emissions:on the one hand, wind power penetration can reduce CO2emissions and reduce fuel costs; on the other hand, other units can increase fuel costs and CO2emissions. What is more, wind power day output mode change frequently, and the short-term operating data can not reflect system operation cost and reliability of the long-term with wind power penetration, so we require a long process simulation tools to simulate wind integration on the energy consumption of the electricity system and CO2emissions.To utilize the advantage of traditional universal generating function (UGF) method in fast and simple calculation and remedy the defect of dissatisfied accuracy of evaluation results by this method due to neglecting the influence of time-sequence in the application, based on improved traditional UGF method a probabilistic production simulation algorithm is proposed and applied in probabilistic production simulation of power system connecting with wind farm.Firstly, a method combining principal component analysis (PCA) with hierarchical cluster analysis is adopted to obtain typical time-sequential samples of wind power output; then a UGF model for wind power output is established by apportionment in average. During the establishment of the UGF model, by means of choosing proper common factor the state values are turned into integral multiples of common factor to effectively restrain the exponential growth of state number and alleviate the explosion of state number.Secondly, the UGF modeling of post-clustering time-sequential wind power output mode is performed to obtain time-sequential UGF model of wind power output, which can incarnate both fluctuation and uncertainty of wind power output, thus the insufficient representativeness of wind power features based on traditional UGF method due to neglecting time-sequence characteristic is overcome. And the UGF of conventional generators is expressed as sequential UGF with Lz-transform。Finally, based on improved universal generating function method, considering the minimum outage time constraints and peaking shaving constraints, we extend the power system probabilistic production simulation with wind power penetration. And the proposed method is used to assess the impact of wind power on reliability, fuel costs and CO2emissions.