Based On The Genetic Algorithm For Forecasting Of Waterway Traffic Volume And Operating Organization Programs

Traffic volume forecasting is a kind of major base for confirming thewater-transportation construction projects. Accurate and reasonable predictions ofwaterway traffic volume are very important for confirming the future scale ofconstruction investment in infrastructure and weaving the blueprints of the watertransportation development strategies. During the forecasting for waterway trafficvolume, the selection and application of the forecasting methods are the vital keys forwater-transportation traffic forecasts. Currently, the methods being commonly used inthe water-transportation volume predictions are not with high enough accuracy andpleasant satisfaction. With the high development of the speeding economy during therecent years, the amount of water-transportation system presents more complex andvarious trends. In order to explore the regular changing patterns of the futuredevelopment of water-transportations more scientifically, introduction of newPrediction Theory and Technology is badly in urge. Grey System based on geneticalgorithm theory Genetic Algorithm has newly developed into a mature theories, withwhich the accuracy of the uncertainty, time-varying and nonlinear characteristics ofthe system predictions will be greatly increased during the applications. Byestablishing and analyzing the Gray Prediction Models in this Paper, we got betterforecasts for passenger and good traffic predictions and analysis in Shanxi Province.The paper is mainly based on the live situation of water transportation in ShanxiProvince, aiming at passenger and cargo traffic and operations researching programsin the next twenty years. The main works of this paper are:(1) to analyze the current research situations of water-transportation volumeprediction both at home and abroad and summarize the current forecasting methodsused commonly in water-transportation predictions.(2) to detail the basic situations of water-transportation in Shanxi Province.(3) to establish the model for the water-transportation volume in Shanxi Provincewith the basic idea of Genetic Algorithm and to forecast the amount of passengers andgoods in the water-transportation in Shanxi Province as well.(4) to study the operation programs of the water-transportation with the methodof comparison in Shanxi Province.On one hand, it provides a certain theoretical basis for macro-decision-makingfor the transportation sectors; on the other hand, it also provides a worth-learningplatform for the method research of the traffic predictions.