Research On The Inherent Evolutionary Laws Of Technological Trajectories In Vehicle Power

The evolution of technological trajectories in vehicle power passes throughout theworld development history of automobile. From the birth of the world first steamengine automobile in1769, to the world first internal combustion engine automobileinvented by Karl Friedrich Benz in1886, then finally coming to today in which thetraditional internal combustion engine vehicle dominates accompanied by the vigorousdevelopment of new energy automobiles, the vehicle power has experienced threemain historical stages of steam engine, battery-driven and internal combustion engine.However, due to the problems of oil crisis, energy security and air pollution worldwide,the question of whether the current vehicle power mode of internal combustion engineusing petroleum as the fuel could keep on evolving along traditional vehicle powertrajectory has already become the common concern of governments and academic fieldglobally. While the premise of solving the evolutionary problems of technologicaltrajectories in vehicle power is to know and grasp the intrinsic rules of the evolutionaryprocess, therefore this is the most basic motive for the research also.At present, the academic field has made certain foundation and achievement inthe research of technological trajectories theory, but lack the study on the intrinsicevolutionary laws of technological trajectories in vehicle power and the research stillneeds to be enriched. Based on the above background, this thesis chose the intrinsicevolutionary laws of technological trajectories in vehicle power as the research object,and carried on the discussion mainly from the theory aspect. The research resultswould be useful to enrich the theories of technological trajectories and dominantdesign, and would also have its value in the practice aspect.The definitions of both technological trajectories and dominant design in vehiclepower were expatiated in this study according to literature research and othercorrelation information. A theory analysis framework was constructed, and thecomplex adaptive system characteristics of technological trajectories in vehicle powerwere elaborated under this framework according to Complex System Theory. Takingthis framework as the instruction and based on its complex adaptive systemcharacteristics, an NK model of technological trajectories in vehicle power was established using NK model method. Then the computer simulation results of thismodel were comprehensively analyzed, and the inherent laws of technologicaltrajectories in vehicle power were discussed. Finally drew the conclusion.The findings revealed that, specific mutual influence and interdependence existedamong the four agents of technological trajectories in vehicle power. Because of that,in order to reach the “most adaptive” condition of technological trajectories in vehiclepower, it was not the result of simple superimposition or being optimal staterespectively for the four agents, but to find the most adaptive bonding point throughtrial-and-error. If the trajectory took the way of “global optimal evolution”, thentheoretically it would always realize the “global optimal state”, meanwhile thepromotion of agent structural complexity was advantageous to the arrival of a higheradaptation level for technological trajectories in vehicle power. If the trajectoryfollowed “local optimal evolution”, then the evolution process would be “initial-pathdual dependence”, and the agent structure keeping to “law of medium complexity withsymmetry” was contributory for technological trajectories in vehicle power to reach ahigher adaptation level. If technological trajectories in vehicle power could stabilizedown in a comparatively long period of time after arriving the point of local or globaloptima, then the power mode in this state was named dominant design, and thisdominant design was also in a dynamic evolutionary process along with the evolutionof technological trajectories in vehicle power.