Power System Safety Risk Assessment Based On Condition-Based Maintenance

It is increasingly important to ensure safe and stable operation of power systems due to the growing complexity of power systems. The domestic and international blackouts in recent years caused enormous economic losses. This allows to improve security and stability of the grid system for the purpose of power system security risk assessment into the field of power system enduring research topics.In current power system risk assessment, the component model is always derived based on the probability of long-term statistical data which is a fixed amount. The failure probability of system components changes greatly under different conditions. So it is often not precise enough to use the traditional method to calculate the component failure rate. Combining with real-time condition maintenance data of each component, a new projection methodology of system component failure probability is applied to calculate the component failure rate in the paper based on the technical standards that “transmission and distribution equipment condition maintenance test code”from the State Grid.Mean the while, the previous literature generally describes the components using a linear function of the more limited extent, and a simple sum of a number of risk indicators is used to evaluate the systemic risks, so the severity function may ignore the small probability events with high-risk. In order to avoid or reduce the severity of the masking phenomenon to better reflect the relative differences between the severity of the problem, a new theory based on the severity of the effectiveness of assessment is proposed to define the severity of function to analysis a seaside power gird which also shows its efficiency.