Settlement Forecasting Method Of High-speed Railway Based On Wavelet And Time Series Analysis

In order to guarantee the train stability, safety and comfort on operational stage, stricter requirement of post-construction settlement and smooth of railway on high-speed railway was brought forward. Currently, due to the limit of calculation theory, complexity and variability of Geotechnical Engineering, large deviation between calculated and measured value was existed. The only way to solve this problem credible was a continuous deformation observation under different railway lines in a certain period of time before track laying, according to the observed data, the post-construction settlement was predicted, the smooth of railway was analyzed, and then the qualification of non-ballasted track laying was determined.Under the background of subject<Settlement and Deformation Evaluate of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway Under Different Railway Lines>, Beijing-Xuzhou section, applicable study on wavelet de-noising and time series prediction was launched.In view of the "small magnitude, large fluctuation" characteristic of high-speed railway settlement curves, adding in ideal wave motion settlement curves, adopting the way of mathematics experiment, making use of multi-wavelet function, multiplex decomposition layers, threshold and mode of action, multiple sets of comparative experiments were made, wavelet function and threshold calculation formula which had good effects on settlement series de-noising of high-speed railway were chosen.In time series prediction, the improved exponential smoothing model and autoregressive sliding average model were studied. Overall, settlement stability under current load, hydrological and geological conditions could be judged comparatively accurate. The future settlement trend could be judged comparatively accurate according to the existing data, which could provide comparatively reliable reference for settlement prediction.Finally, combined with the two research results above. GUI program of corresponding calculation method was worked out by MATLAB.