Air Traffic Control Safety Systerm Assessment Method Based On Bayesian Networks

Safety is the life of civil aviation transportation industry. In recent years, Air traffic has maintained a high growth rate and spatial environment is also undergoing tremendous changes with the rapid economic development and deepening the links among regions. The modern air transport has shown a high density transport characteristics. Aircraft flight safety is threatened by a changing small space, and the air traffic service is under great pressure. In Event of an accident, air transport efficient, fast, comfortable features instantaneously chance into a cruel moment of the accident consequences.Air traffic service is an important basis to ensure flight safety. How to improve air traffic service to protect the safety of flight capability have become closely issues of concern to the world’s governments and related civil aviation authority. In order to improve aviation safety and achieve share of flight safety data and experience, ICAO actively recommend the construction of Safety Management System (SMS). SMS provides guidance for the future direction of civil aviation safety management. To achieve international standards, the Civil Aviation Administration of China is also actively responding to the SMS construction.The SMS sues systems engineering approach to improve the security of civil aviation system,whose the core content is risk management. According to this,this article is about how to improve the air traffic system security capabilities. Firstly, the paper comparatively analyzes the related studies home and abroad. Then, this paper proposes a safety system assessment of ATC combining the contents of the ICAO SMS framework after in view of the actual situation and the run risk existing in the operation of ATC. Finally, this paper establishes safety system assessment model based on Bayesian networks after combining the safety system assessment of ATC. The assessment model has the ability to deal with qualitative and quantitative information. And the output of the safety assessment model can be used to predict safety conditions and can find the weak links in the system, which contribute to improve ability of ATC’security as well as provide reference to the daily Safety Science management.