Research On The Prediction Model Of The Fracturing Effect Based On Extra High Water Cut Stage In South Eighth Area

The production prediction is important to the economic evaluation after fracturing, and isthe basic for the optimization of the horizontal well fracturing design and the constructionparameters. At present there are some questions in the process of prediction, such as blindness,low permeability, inaccurate. Based on many factors affecting the fracturing effect, this thesisestablished the fracturing effect prediction model, and starting from the actual situation fieldresearched the productivity prediction to the south eighth area applying of grey correlation,multiple regression and neural network.This thesis chose to quantify all the parameters as far as possible based on the dynamicand static parameters of the south eighth area, picked up and disposed based layer data by theprogramming software, chose evaltuating indicator, established basic evaltuating indicator.Then established the fracturing measures library to the south eighth area; This thesis choseearly rising oil and increased amount of oil as the predictive parameters,11factors such aspurpose layer effective thickness, permeability, oil saturation and water cut before fracturing,researched their degree to the effect of fracturing measures by the optimization parameterschosen using grey correlation, then chose the bigger influential factors; This thesis establishedthe fracturing effect prediction model applying of grey correlation, multiple regression andneural network, and did the prediction research on the fracturing effect; Aimed at thedifference prediction accuracy between the different water level and liquid measure beforefracturing, respectively to draw the plate fit for different water level and liquid measureaiming at the early rising oil of basic well pattern, the first well pattern, the secondaryencryption well pattern and the third encryption well pattern; This thesis worked out thefracturing effect prediction software: using Visual Basic programming language programmedthe study process supplying reference for others.Through the study of this thesis, the thesis can be the guiding function to the choice ofthe fracturing process, and guiding significance to optimizing the fracturing operation,reducing the proportion of inefficient wells and improving the use of remaining reserves andfracturing effect.