Simulation Of Regional Industrial Distribution And Environmental Impact Assessment Based On An Uncertainty Analysis

Regional economic growth is one of the most important driving forcesfor national development in China. However, too-rapid growth, structuresimilarity and extenive distribution of regional industries, especially heavyindustries, have significantly intensified regional resources use andenvironmental stress. The conflict can be rather exacerbated at a mega-regional level, such as Bohai Sea rim region. The significant uncertainty ofindustrial development considerably hampers an efficient simulation andsystematic assessment of the associated environmental impacts.This study developed a Computational System for Regional IndustrialDistribution Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment model（RESEA）, taking various uncertainties in relation with economic growth,industrial structure and spatial disbribution into consideration. This RESEAmodel provides a systematic methodolody, combing the Regional IndustrialDistribution Module （RIDM） and the Environmental Impact AssessmentModule （EIAM）, for regional industrial pollution projection and assessment.The RIDM based on a discrete choice modelling process enables a bottom-upsimulation of regional industrial layout. The EIAM provides an integratedassessment tool via comparing the uncertain industrial emission with theenvironmental constraints. Furthermore, this study developed a globalsensitivity analysis method based on Sampling-based methods （includingMonte Carlo Sampling and Latin Hypercube Sampling） to deal with the inputuncertainty and parameter uncertainty of the RESEA model. The potentialenvironmental impacts of different policy packages, involving industrial sizeregulation, re-structuring and efficiency permission, can be systematicallyidentified further. This could enable decision makers a better understanding ofthe dynamics of regional industrial distribution and the related environmentalconsequences and thus a more sustainable devlepment model.Bohai SEA rim region is the case study area. The parameters of the models in the RIDM were calibrated and sensitivity analysed based on itshistoric data during2002-2008. Of all the nine models, more than20parameters （32parameters in total） are identified as sensitive. The results ofthis part indicate that the global sensitivity analysis method this studydeveloped can identify model parameters with sparse data. RESEA modelbuilds a baseline scenario for Bohai SEA rim region in2015. Pollutionpressure for surface water and air are calculated. Bohai SEA rim region needto reduce the emissions of COD （246thousand ton）, NH₃-N （140thousandton）, SO₂（396thousand ton）, NO_x（669thousand ton）. All of these scenariosusing industrial size regulation, re-structuring, industry admittance threshold,and efficiency permission can decrease the pollution pressure, of which theindustrial size regulation is the best one. Comparing with baseline scenario,the pollution of COD、NH₃-N、SO₂、NO_xcan achieve an emission reductionof15.0%,14.7%,13.6%,13.6%respectively, and the total emission controlreduction of more than30%. The environmental impact management of thisarea needs to use these policy packages together, and make great efforts toreduce existing industrial pollution at the same time.