Research Of Ecological Land Pattern Evolution Based On Multi-agent

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy develop rapidly. The land use insome regions where developed rapidly changed dramatically. It makes a lot of ecological landwhich maintains the regional ecological balance and ensures the quality of the ecologicalenvironment degenerate constantly. So, how to curb the trend of ecological land diverted andstrengthen the protection of ecological land is without delay. This text research the evolutionof ecological land pattern of the past20years in Dinghu, and simulate the situation ofecological land pattern evolution in the next10years using the model combining cellularautomata and multi-agent. Logistic regression model module is a function of cellularautomata, excavate the relationship between the dependent variable and several spatialvariables by historical data from1991and1999, and then determine the coefficient of theindependent variables in the logistic equation. The multi-agent module takes the governmentland use plan and the residents needs to urban green space into account. Also joined theconstraint modules and random modules in order to make the model more realistic, theconstraint can identify a number of restricted areas, the random factors can reflect theuncertainties in land-use change process. This article integrate the four parts, first,re-definition ecological land,determine the ecological land classification system compliancewith this study, then create the interpret signs of ecological land, classify the TM images ofDinghu with ENVI4.3software, build the model using ArcGIS ModelBuilder modulecombined with local land use data and socio-economic statistical data. The finaldetermination of the model need to test repeatedly, ultimately obtain the optimal combinationof model parameters. After a precision assessment make the model meet the requirements ofecological land evolution situation, Simulated and analyze the process of ecological landpattern evolution of Dinghu in2020. The results show that its ecological land converted tonon-ecological land most concentrated in the east-central. On the one hand, it is because ofthe limitations by natural conditions, on the other hand it due to the government’s planningand adjustment, making the most of the ecological land to maintain contiguous. The overallpattern change of ecological land from1991to2009is not evident. Despite, its local changesin the number is still very evident. Through the simulation and prediction for2020,we knowif according to planning and development, ecological land use change are mostlyconcentrated in east-central and the number of change are more than the previous two period.The land pressure highlighted.