Drought Evolution Studies Of The Haihe River Based On The Critical Cycle Factors

Drought is the most serious impact of human society and cause the loss of hugenatural disasters. Along with economic development, population growth and globalclimate warming, drought has further aggravated the trend, especially extremedrought events. The Haihe River Basin belongs to warm temperate semi-humid andsemi-arid continental monsoon climate, the extremely sensitive response to climatechange, is also one of the important agricultural production areas in China, lossescaused by meteorological disasters and affect a very large. Drought evaluationmethods varied, but most of them over a single consideration, not a comprehensivereflection of the actual situation of the drought. But the drought is actually the studyof various existing forms of dynamic change for the water cycle process. PalmerDrought Severity Index compared with other meteorological drought index is betterable to fully reflect the hydrological cycle parameters were calculated based oncertain rules and assumptions, under the framework of the Palmer drought indexbased drought index based on key water cycle elements, And to study the evolution ofthe Haihe River Basin drought. The main findings are as follows:(1) Based on the critical cycle factors, using the measured runoff、Exchangecapacity of soil moisture using the effective soil water content and then analyze thedata released by the European Centre for medium-term forecasts、 Actualevapotranspiration using water balance principle to obtain, Drought index based onkey water cycle elements in the framework of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.Evaluation results were typical drought year (June1968) and typical areas (261in thestudy area and the Haihe River Basin).(2) Comprehensive reference to “Haihe Basin floods and droughts” and“Floods and droughts in Hebei Province”, This article the simulation of the droughtindex Haihe Basin from1961to2000calendar year, the monthly aridity EmpiricalAnalysis, The results show that the typical drought years1965,1968,1972,1975,1980to1984and1989can be in good agreement, and from two angles of the precipitation and temperature to simulate the May1976drought than was analyzed, By the resultsobtained by the analysis of verification is reasonable. Select the age of typical droughtyears-1965,1972and1989spatial distribution characteristics compared withsimulated values, are well verified.(3) Analyzing drought temporal and spatial evolution in Haihe River Basinbased on the drought index in this article. The extreme drought of the Haihe RiverBasin was a significant upward trend;12in mid-May to September is a critical periodof the Haihe River Basin drought, during which not only prone to drought and aridity,spread wide, the peak period of extreme drought, while July and August is the mostimportant. For this reason this article focuses on the space evolution of the HaiheRiver Basin drought-prone period from May to September, in which thedrought-prone areas in the eastern part of the Haihe River in northern, Followed byLuan River and Jidong coastal watershed and the middle of the Haihe River area;extreme drought prone areas of Shanxi Xinzhou and Zhangjiakou in Hebei Province,Beijing should also pay great attention to this.(4) Based on the above results, improve the administrative management system,development of water sources and water conservation to submit a detailed, targetedmanagement suggestions, provide a reference to the relevant departments to activelydrought of the Haihe River Basin.