The Application Of Climate Statistical Diagnostic Techniques And The Development Of Relevant Software

The environmental problems caused by climate change had drawn worldwideattention.We chose three sites as our study areas:Chizhou, Tongling and the county ofChangfeng.Three chief tasks had been made as follows:1)The temperature andprecipitation datas of Chizhou（1960²009） and Tongling（1960²008） had been analyzedby relevant climate diagnostic techniques;2)DNDC9.3model was applied to simulate theamount of CH₄and N₂O emissions from Changfeng paddy fields.Sensitivity experiment ofthe model had also been made to discover the influence factors;3)Based on VisualBasic（version6.0） and Matlab（version2010a）, the software of climate statisticaldiagnosis（SCSD） had been developed.The main conclusifons of our study were as follows:1. The conclusions of temperature and precipitation datas of Tongling （1960²008）（1） The annual average temperature series of Tongling was significant upwardtendency, and the rising rate was0.208℃/10a. The average temperature rose about1.02℃over the study period.The most significant season was spring, its rising rate was0.351℃/10a.（2） There were seasonal discrepancies of temperature series. Apart from summer, thetemperature series of spring, autumn and winter were significant upward tendencies at0.05leve1.The order of temperature range was spring, winter, autumn and summer.Thecontributions of summer temperature to total range was minimum.（3） The wavelet analysis showed both annual and seasonal pecipitaion had multi-scalechange.In terms of annual precipitation,2³a-scale and22²5a-scale oscillation werestrong.As for the seasonal precipitation, the strongest oscillating scale of spring was21²5a, summer was3a,autumn was8¹1a,and winter was11¹6a.（4） The research area was in the terminal cyclical period of low-water.It was predictedthat a new cyclical period of high-water would come around2010.（5） Spring and summer had more rainfall than autumn and winter in Tongling.Therefore, spring and summer played an important role for contributions to regional waterresources. In view of3a-scale, spring and summer played an important role for annualprecipitation variation. In view of24a-scale, spring and autumn played an important rolefor it.2. The conclusions of precipitation data of Chizhou（1960²009） （1） Aunnal precipitation slightly decreased.As for seasonal series,summer and winterincreased,meanwhile,winter trend was significant.Spring and autumn decreased.Waveletanalysis showed that seasonal series had4⁵a oscillating periods.In terms of yearly series,the maximum season was summer while the minimum was winter.（2） The distribution of Hurst exponent showed that various months had definitelylevels of persistence/antipersistence strength.In the terms of seasonal and annual series,summer was antipersistent with higher fractal dimensions and complexities while the otherfour series were persistent.（3） The seasonal precipitation had two abrupt changes occuring in the autumn of1986and winter of1999.3. The emissions of CH4and N2O from Changfeng paddy fields（1） The average amount of CH4and N2O emissions from Changfeng County’s paddyfields were1.82×10^-2Tg C and3.03×10^-4Tg N respectively in2008.（2） The sensitivity experiment of DNDC9.3model showed that SOC（Soil OrganicCarbon）, air temperature, soil pH and the amount of CH4emissions were positivelycorrelated. In addition, the nitrogen in the rainfall and the amount of N2O emissions werepositively correlated, and so were air temperature and N2O. The amount of N2O emissionswere also sensitive to the variations of SOC and soil pH.4. SCSD could diagnose the basic climate statistics effectively, and draw thecorresponding figures.