Forecasting Study On Similar Moving Path Of Tropical Cyclones Based On GIS

The forecast based on similar moving path is one of the important methods to forecast the trace of tropical cyclones. Similar path not only reflect the similarity in the location, the direction, the shape, but also implies the similarity in the causes of tropical cyclones, the external factors such as atmospheric circulation, and the inner factors, so it has important significance to the forecast based on similar moving pathIn the paper, we refer to traditional methods of track forecast. Aiming at key points and the standard of similarity, we study the method of similar track forecast based on GIS. Specific research contents in the paper include the following respects.1) Through an intensive study on the method of extracting key points, put forward the method of extracting key points of general track and unusual track.2) Perfect and improve the method of similar track forecast from the similarity in space, season and speed. Choose the hausdorff distance as the quantitative indicators to measure the similarity of tropical cyclones. Shown by the experiments, the improved method to forecast the track of tropical cyclones is more accurate than the method based on local similarity.3) Program the experimental software and prove the above method feasibly by forecasting the track of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific.