The Dynamic Numerical Simulation And Analysis And Forecast Of Nonlinear Groundwater Systems

Groundwater resources is an important source in agriculture, industry and domestic water. With the rapid economic development, population growth and industrial and agriculture development, the exploitation of groundwater by human beings has increased dramatically which lead to the continuous decline of water level and deterioration of water quality. The over-exploitation of underground had caused some regional issues such as underground funnel, ground subsidence and ecological degradation, which had a serious impact on regional economic and social sustainable development. To ensure the coordinated development of water resources and the economy, the numerical simulation and prediction of groundwater systems with modern scientific methods is of great significance. And it made a scientific and rational basis to government departments to develop policies to protect groundwater resources and to strengthen the management.This paper based on deeply understanding of the numerical simulation of groundwater systems, according to the data and information of Hailar oil field in hydrogeology, environmental geology, and the formation of groundwater conditions, made a comprehensive hydro geological studies. By using of GMS FEFLOW application software, and kriging (Kriging), natural neighbor, we calculated the geological structure of the study area and got the geological structure scheme. According to the hydrogeological exploration data of the study area, we established a hydrogeological conceptual model, and made a quantitative generalization of the study area boundaries. What’s more, we established differential equations to reflect the dynamic changes of the groundwater study area which determined the boundary conditions. This paper used the MODFLOW three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow calculation software which based on the GMS platform to solve differential equations; and the method of parameter estimation to identify and do a parameter retrieval of the numerical groundwater flow model. And validated the numerical model by using of the existing observational data. The verified results and the observation results meet with the accuracy requirements, which can be identified, the numerical groundwater flow model can accurately simulate the general laws of movement of regional groundwater flow, and thus to predict the water table of the study area.This paper also did the water balance calculation, evaluated the groundwater resources of the study area, and divided the water-rich region. And according to national standards and standards related to the oil industry, conducted a study characteristics distribution of groundwater quality.Finally, the research paper got conclusions of the analysis of groundwater systems on the basis of the Hailar oilfield Hoube study area. The conclusions are basically the same with the ones which got preliminary by hydrogeological survey-based Institute for Exploration, but more accurately and intuitively reflected the study area groundwater system. This research paper has far-reaching significance and practical value in use for the local water conservation, stable oil supply, and the coordinated development of economy.