Variation Of Air-sea Heat Fluxes Over Asian And Indian-Pacifica Ocean Area And Its Relationship With South China Sea Summer Monsoon

Based on the satellite remote data from Special Sensor Microwave Images (SSM/I) andAdvanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the oceanic and atmospheric parametersare retrieved through the method of neural network. And then the surface latent and sensible heatfluxes over Asian and Indian-Pacifica Ocean area have been computed by the advanced methodof COARE3.0bulk algorithm by our project. Then we analyze the variations of air-sea heatfluxes over this area. And the relationship between the fluxes and the South China Sea (SCS)summer monsoon onset is highlighted. Based on the correlation between the air-sea heat fluxesand South China Sea summer monsoon onset, a linear regression equation is obtained to predictthe onset date of the SCS summer monsoon. The mainly results are as following:1. The distribution of the average annual sensible and latent heat fluxes indicates that boththe sensible and latent heat fluxes have maximum value in the Kuroshio area and thecentral-southern Indian Ocean area. The second maximum value is in western pacificwarm pool area and northern Indian Ocean area. The seasonal variation of averagesensible and latent heat fluxes with latitude and longitude also obtains the same results.2. We choose four representative areas to analyze the variations of air-sea heat fluxes. Andthe results show that there are much more differences between sensible and latent heatfluxes in western pacific warm pool area and northern Indian Ocean area, while thesensible and latent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio area and the central-southern IndianOcean area have the same distribution. The Kuroshio area has the largest value in winter,the opposite to the central-southern Indian Ocean area. The heat fluxes over westernpacific warm pool area and northern Indian Ocean area first increased and thendecreased, and then increased again in the whole.3. The wavelet transform and the spectrum analysis of the latent heat fluxes in the crucialsea areas show that the period of air-sea heat fluxes over the Kurtosis area is quasi-1a.The latent heat flux over the northern Indian Ocean area has notable period of3a. Thesensible heat flux over the central-southern Indian has notable period of3a. And theair-sea heat fluxes over the western pacific warm pool area has obvious period of1a. 4. Correlation analysis of air-sea heat fluxes over the western pacific warm pool area andthe SCS summer monsoon onset indicate a remarkable correlation between them. Thebest correlation appears in April, when the air-sea heat fluxes are three years ahead ofthe SCS summer monsoon. The similar analysis indicates that the best correlationbetween air-sea heat fluxes over the north Indian Ocean area and the SCS summermonsoon onset appears in May, when the air-sea heat fluxes are three years ahead of theSCS summer monsoon onset.5. We built a simple regression equation to predict the onset date of the2011and2012SCS summer monsoon. The onset date in2011will be normal. While the onset date in2012will be1-2pentads later than in the normal year.6. The linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the SCS summermonsoon in2011and2012. The forecast result is that the onset date of2011will benormal or1pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in2012will be1-2pentad later.