Research On The Forecast Typhoon Products On Micaps Platform

Typhoon to bring large areas of adequate rainfall, a close relationship with human life and production of the rainfall system. But the typhoon has also brought a variety of total destruction, it has a sudden and strong, damaging major features is the world’s most severe natural disasters. Typhoon southeastern coastal provinces of China in summer and autumn are often encountered in natural disasters. Before the typhoon landed, according to meteorological department typhoon process and development trend analysis, forecasting defense of carrying out the necessary emergency evacuation and rescue operation, can effectively reduce casualties and property losses.Typhoon forecasting methods include two types of numerical prediction and objective forecasting. Large-scale numerical prediction based on meteorological numerical forecast the typhoon moving trend and activities of the property; objective historical tropical cyclone forecast and prediction data, applied probability, similarity, regression analysis and climatology persistence prediction methods such as typhoon forecasting.Objective forecasting typhoon forecast is based on the original data, predict future data. As the pressure difference when a typhoon formed and the role of walking, walking paths and in the impact of typhoon wind by many factors, such as the impact of land and the sea level, humidity, temperature and other factors.In this paper, using historical data of a typhoon track prediction model. Application of the key points of similarity France model, using geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and establishing the current location of the buffer measured typhoon from history database in the search path similar to the typhoon typhoon path to determine the similarity of all articles, in accordance with Typhoon similarity to determine the similarity weight for24-48hours trend prediction of typhoon track; according to forecasts every6-hour amendment on the predicted results. Case studies show that24-hour forecast error is less than140km,48hours forecast errors are less than240km.This article was developed based on Micaps (comprehensive analysis of weather information processing system) platform will use historical data to forecast the typhoon path value products, such as typhoons and fax mapping and publishing, typhoons equivalent probability algorithm and the probability of drawing the region.