Climate Change In Xinjiang Bortala River Basin And Its Effects On Runoff Bortala River In Recent50Years

This article choose bortala River Basin, four on behalf of the temperature,precipitation and other meteorological data and weather station1961-2010years1980-2010years, two hydrological stations the bortala River runoff and otherinformation to clarify the recent50to Bo the bortala River Basin Climate Change inrunoff. The results showed that:(1) in the last50a basin temperature is rising, an increase of0.303°C/10years;winter temperatures increase, while summer warming trend is not obvious;temperature changes during the year quite different, the highest temperature in theannual7month, the minimum temperature in January; the1960s,1970s,1980s,temperatures were lower, the temperature continued to increase after the1990s;basin temperatures mutation test results show that the temperature of about1996, amutation from low to high.(2) To nearly50a, the watershed precipitation increased year by year, theincrease12.04mm/10a; basin seasonal precipitation showed an increasing trend,especially in the more pronounced increase in summer and winter; the1960s,1970s,low precipitation Bortala River Basin precipitation, rapid increase in the1980s, intothe precipitation rate of increase is more obvious in the early21st century; inprecipitation mainly in May, June, July3months; precipitation mutation test resultsshow that the mutations do not Obviously, from low to high mutation probablyoccurred around1985.(3) Bortala River is the Central mountain snow melt water, rainwater andgroundwater three common supply source.1980-2010annual runoff in general wasthe oscillation increasing trend, Bole Station and Spa Station runoff increase of0.031×10~8m~3/a,0.068×10~8m~3/a, are α=0.01significance test; Bortala River Trailtraffic mutation analysis showed that: Bortala river runoff quasi1997-1998onceconverted from the low of the high side of the mutation and by a=0.01significancetest.(4) River Basin bortala temperature and the correlation coefficient between therunoff are small, but did not pass the significance level test, indicating littlerelationship between high and low temperatures and runoff. Correlation betweenrunoff and temperature of the basin at different positions are different, therelationship between the bortala River Pass area and the temperature larger than thedownstream region, indicating that rising temperatures conducive to the riverYamaguchi District runoff increase, while The river downstream, the reason for the supply source of the river Yamaguchi District runoff is closely related to the glacier.(5) Bortala River basin precipitation and runoff correlation coefficient betweenthe summer correlation coefficient of0.65, but also through the0.001level ofsignificance test, the fall of the minimum0.16. Shows that precipitation and runoffhave a good correlation shows that precipitation is the main of Bortala river runoffrecharge.(6) The regression equation to predict future changes in rate of runoff, assumingconstant of the precipitation, the temperature increase of1°C. Bortala river runoffwill increase by4%. When the temperature is constant, precipitation increased by10%runoff will increase4.6%; when precipitation decreased by30%, regardless ofthe temperature increase to2°C, or reduction in runoff. This is a further contributionto the increase in precipitation runoff than temperature.(7) The impact of human activities of Bortala River Basin has become moreapparent, to take effective protective measures, so that that of Bortala waterresources to achieve sustainable use.