The Dynamic Model Of Real Estate Average Residential Sales Price

"up",reflecting the most common aspirations of recent years, but also selected for the annual"hot words"and,"the housing price rise"catches the most worthy of our attention. Research relating to real estate ,started long ago. With the rising, on the theory and empirical analysis of prices mushroomed, and became the hot point in the academic and theoretical circles. As housing problems, related to the overwhelming majority of the people the most basic survival, the research and study of this subject is always meaningful and valuable . Thus, base on the previous theoretical and empirical analysis, the author will continue to explore this topic about housing price.In this paper, average residential prices for the main study, by using Leontief input-output analysis of the basic idea ,introduce the cost factors affecting housing prices selectively and build on the dynamic model of housing prices. At the same time, the author does not consider other cases, only from the price trends for their predictive simulation, primarily by using a simple regression prediction mode, gray forecasting ,neural network model and combined neural network models for prediction and analysis. By the research under the two different premises, and use the Chengdu average residential price as the sample data, use the mathematical software MATLAB and the statistical software SPSS, finally get a real sense of the empirical results. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In the dynamic model on the input and output prices, when other factors constant, the current rise in house prices will lead to the next issue of rising house prices, the current real estate market is expected to be better, the confidence of Home Builders and investors will be enhanced. When other conditions remain unchanged, it reflects inverse correlation between the current share of the land cost ,construction- installation cost ,and the next phase of the housing price, that is ,when the land cost share and the construction-installation cost share increase, the housing prices will increase next fall; the contrary, the opposite. The response to this phenomenon is the essence of the land cost and construction-installation cost increase in housing prices, the real estate development process indicates that the technology cost ratio increases, the proportion of capital costs will be reduced, this will have conducive to rational prices return. When other conditions remain unchanged ,the current land, construction, installation share impact the next housing price less than the impaction of interest rate and tax rates, and the interest rate is most significant, lending rates and the next housing price were the reverse correlation. That current interest rates rise, will lead the next rise in housing price. Interest in this regard can be seen that the factors that affect the important position of housing prices, house prices can also be seen on the other hand, lending a strong sensitivity to interest rate changes.(2)By using four common prediction method to predict house prices showed that, in the average residential sales price in Chengdu area forecast, the linear regression is relatively significant, and ordinary residential suburb of Chengdu, the Neural network effect is relatively significant. Thus we can see that average residential sales price in Chengdu change on historical data there is a strong dependence, as demonstrated by real estate agency, investors and home buyers on the price expectations of a strong reliance on the price.Finally, policy recommendations based on conclusions were as follows:(1)reasonably regulate the real estate market(2)a reasonable interest rate transmission mechanism to guide(3)reasonable use taxes, effective control of real estate development profits in the process of behavior(4)reasonably regulate the land market and efficient use of land resources(5)to strengthen the real estate development and management of cost control. In short, to make the real estate market healthy and sustainable development so that the effective to rational prices, the real estate market must rely on the continued efforts of all participants and effective collaboration and communication.