Aresearch On The Life Cycle Of Fixed Telephone Service In China

Since Fixed Telephone Service was introduced to China in 1900, it has created much glorious era. But with the development of the mobile communications, the consumptive habit changes of communication service users and the increase in mobile penetration in recent years, the fixed telephone service has to face much more heterogeneity competition and began to decline: churn, ARPU go down and so on. Therefore, based on the existing achievements, the product life cycle theory, technology innovation diffusion theory and econometric models, the life cycle of fixed telephone service has been discussed. A number of life cycle model of fixed telephone service have been built and analysizd. Through the above discussion and research, the future development trend of fixed telephone service would be explored and the corresponding marketing strategies would be proposed to slow the decline trend of fixed telephone service and extend its life cycle.The research point and the main results of this thesis is as follows:(1) Based on the time series of the number of fixed telephone subscribers, time series model has been constructed to reflect the evolution of the fixed telephone services, descripte the life cycle curve shape and predict the future trends.(2) Based on Bass Model, A trickle-down effect between the fixed telephone and mobile phone business has been introducted, and a binary technology diffusion model has been built to analyze the proliferation of the fixed telephone service with the presence of the mobile phone business. The substitution between the fixed telephone service and the mobile phone business has been verified.(3) The session of the life cycle of the fixed telephone services in China has been identified based on the mathematical characteristics of the Gompertz curve.(4) Based on the existing achievements, the factors which affect fixed telephone service has been concluded and discussed qualitatively. Simultaneous equations models have been built to verify the affection of the factors and examine the predictive value of the trend by adjusting the variable value.