| The real development period of Chinese real estate is only about twenty years. But its rate far exceeded the speed people expected. Of course, it brings a series of problems between its developments, such as the soaring housing price etc. Since 1998, our country take housing commercial. Chinese real estate industry entered a fast track of development and the rate is amazing. Therefore, the continued growth of real estate price has drawn the attention and concern of everyone. This issue has become the major issue that ordinary people concern. Thus how to curb the soaring housing price and to ensure the healthy and orderly development of Chinese real estate industry is the important issue.Since 1998,the state implement "On the further deepening of the urban housing system reform, speeding up housing construction notice ",the real estate industry has developed rapidly and has become a pillar industry of national economy at the same time. Real estate industry has high link with other industry because of its long industry chain and cycle. On the one hand, it can drive the development of downstream industries and promote the growth of entire national economy. On the other hand, commercial residential real estate is an important component of real estate industry. How the commercial housing market develops and fluctuate can influent the entire national economy and welfare. In recent years, China's urban house price rose rapidly. Even in some areas and cities, the speed far exceeded residents can afford. Soaring house price not only affect the sustainable develop of the national economy, but also affect residents' life quality and style. Since then soaring house price has become an important economic and social problem. This matter drew more attention of national relevant department and experts. Many experts and scholars did much further study on house price. But the most study on the influence factors of China's urban house price is about refining the country data or developed city data. And the study basically is to study the relationship about economic fundamentals and urban real estate price. Then presents the influence degree of economic fundamentals on house price. There is little study on northeast region of second-tier city such as Dalian.In this paper, from the perspective of real estate market and the related theory of real estate, the author summarizes China's real estate market and real estate price. Then take Dalian commercial house market for example, using time series analysis of real estate price in recent years, the author makes empirical study on the changes of Dalian real estate price. Because of too many influence factors and the factors are difficult to be quantified, the article is attempted to seek the index that can be quantified and can be put into the model of real estate price. The paper uses SPSS software for qualitative and quantitative analysis to identify the impact factor of changes on real estate price and put them in order. Based on panel data on Dalian from year 2002 to 2010, the paper established an econometric model of house price and did comprehensive test on its effectiveness. The result shows that in all the factors, the impact on the price level of Dalian from strong to weak is as follws:real state development and investment, disposable income, GDP. Dalian population, construction and installation cost, sales area of commercial house and land price.In the conclusion of the paper, in regard to soaring house price, from national macro-economic policy-making, tax reform, and economic structure adjustment aspects, the author gives some proposal. The conclusions have reference significance on how government departments control house price effectively and how the real estate investment companies develop orderly. Of course there are many shortcomings. Firstly, this article selected small sample of shorter time span. This paper takes Dalian commercial house market for example, maybe there is some limitations and the city can not accurately represent the entire real estate market. At the same time this article is short of large comparative study on different city. Since July 1998 The State Council issued "State Council on further deepen the reform of the urban housing system to speed up housing construction" and made a stop in-kind welfare housing allocation decision. The real estate market began to develop really. So our country's real estate market developed in a relatively short time. The earlier indicators of the annual data can not fully reflect the market supply and demand. Secondly, Dalian city data is not complete and accurate too. Because of the incomplete and inadequate data, at the start time the article tried to study the annual data of 20 years span sample, but the data is difficult to obtain and the time span is too long. Some data verifies because of different calculating diameter. Thirdly, due to my limited level of measurement, there is still a gap to explain the analysis process and the result. So this aspect is expected to be improved. Finally, the inner relationships among the impact factors have not been studied thoroughly. Many factors are not unilateral but a multi-faceted, such as demographic factor. This is a very complex set of factor. The impact of population quantity and population structure is also different. So the combined influence effect is not necessary positive. This problem is caused by the comprehension of the article. I hope to improve this problem in further sdudy and make it perfect as soon as I can. |
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