The Research On Prewarning System To Fibre Inustry

China is one of the largest textile production countries, its fiber volume is about 50% of the world totle, it plays a vital role in the world textile industry. The stable development of China's chemical fiber industry is not only related to China's textile and clothing and the healthy development of China's economy, but also affect the global textile and apparel production and trade balance. So, it is very important to have a prewarning on China's chemical fiber industry.This article focuses on the prewarning of chemical fiber industry. Through in-depth understanding of the status and trends of chemical fiber industry, it reveals the related factors of development of the chemical fiber industry, it predict the impact of uncertainty on the industry. This paper will have two innovative, first, it to establish an prewarning system for a specific industry, second, it is the micro-level warning. This warning is more targeted, accuracy and applicability.In this paper, the fiber industry of Ningbo is presented as a example to research warning system of fiber industry. Paper mainly from the eight aspects of prewarning research, including warning the world economic trends, changes in world textile trade patterns of prewarning, prewarning of RMB appreciation, prewarning of raw materials prices, domestic demand for prewarning, prewarning of Ningbo chemical industry operating environment, Ningbo chemical industry operating status warning and policy change warning.Known by the warning system, chemical demand will rise, domestic demand is very stable. Although the international market fluctuations and uncertainties, particularly the euro zone sovereign debt crisis dragged down markets and financial difficulties, growth slowed down, but the market growth trend will not change.China's textile and fiber significantly affect world supply and demand, China's textile and chemical fiber steady growth of domestic demand will be the main driving force. After a period of rapid growth, especially after the experience of the world economic crisis, the growth rate will slow down.The lack of fossil resources and the rise of oil prices is a big trend,RMB appreciation on the textile and clothing exports will be hit, which will affect the industrial structure, trade policies.