RMB Exchange Rate And Export Competitiveness Of Enterprises

Economic integration, trade globalization, the exchange rate as the price system is an important component of an open economic environment, one of the core economic variables, it is by affecting import and export commodity prices, quantity, thereby affecting a country's foreign trade situation. Over the years, many countries have spared no effort to use its own currency undervalued, or other trade protection measures to balance or even pursuit of the international balance of payments surplus, leading to competition between the world market share and trade friction. Shows that the exchange rate of a country's foreign trade balance and the volatility of domestic economic activity has a profound impact.In this paper, and the PRC Foreign Exchange Administration Bureau of Statistics data published on the website, select the 17 years 1994 to 2010 average annual exchange rate (annual average exchange rates by a cumulative average of 12 monthly income) and China's export market share, respectively, statistical analysis movement in the RMB exchange rate and export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. We set up model, Granger causality test model, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, with empirical analysis, respectively, from the short term, long term and short-term fluctuations in long-term impact, to quantify the yuan exchange rate changes and export competitiveness of China's internal relations. Conclusions are:1. Through the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises index LNR LNS and the RMB exchange rate index test coefficient of correlation matrix can be seen, the RMB exchange rate index and export competitiveness index correlation coefficient of -0.79, has a strong negative correlation, indicating that the RMB appreciation and export competitiveness of enterprises there is a strong inverse correlation to verify the regulation of international trade balance exchange rate as the main economic levers to adjust its changes will affect a country's import and export trade in the conclusion.2.By using the Eviews software stable of first-order differential data DLNS and DLNR, respectively first, second, third, fourth-order lag Granger causality test case. Through the test results can be seen only in the first-order lag period, the RMB exchange rate first difference data DLNR with 72% confidence level as the export competitiveness of Chinese companies a first-order differential data DLNS Granger causes, indicating a first-order lag fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will affect the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises the change, and in the longer lag period, the RMB exchange rate movements do not constitute the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises factors.3. By using the vector auto regression model, the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises first order lag, and lag a current RMB exchange rate fluctuations in both the current export competitiveness of China's enterprises have a significant impact. One of the first order lag and the current export competitiveness of China's export competitiveness was the reverse change in the relationship, China's export competitiveness and the current RMB exchange rate changes showed a positive relationship with the first-order lag relationship between the RMB exchange rate changes inversely, the difference is that the first order lag relative to short-term reverse effect, when the period of the positive impact of the RMB exchange rate is slightly higher, indicating that the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises to export short-term impact is obvious, and to some extent confirms the J-curve effect, and there is a first-order lag.4 In this paper, the short-term impact study completed after the re-use Eviews software on the exchange rate index LNR and the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises by the Johansen multivariate index LNS system maximum likelihood estimation for multivariate time series cointegration tests. Come to the test concluded that 95% of probability, have reason to believe Chinese companies export competitiveness index index LNR LNS and the RMB exchange rate stable long-run equilibrium relationship exists that shows the long term, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the time factor is constituted China changes in export competitiveness factors, long-term excessive appreciation of the RMB to China's export trade is bound to Chinese enterprises and thus adversely affect export competitiveness.5. By the simplified first-order lag with the error correction model can be seen, the error correction model coefficients significantly higher levels, indicating that the export competitiveness of Chinese companies led to short-term changes in the "imbalance", and "balance" the next a Chinese business impact of changes in the level of 23.29%. To explain short-term export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises not only by changes in short-term exchange rate fluctuations, but also by China's export competitiveness and long-term equilibrium exchange rate deviation (error) of the impact that the long-term exchange rate fluctuations in China's export competitiveness stability.Our country is in economic development, reform and opening up the stage, the next decade will be China's economic development the most critical period. The face of rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate trend is bound to reduce the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises to enhance long-term, slow the pace of development of China's macro-economic, on China's economic growth adversely. Therefore, we must explore the active and steady, practical response measures, exchange rate stability, enhancing export competitiveness, the effective protection of our sound and rapid macroeconomic growth. This is our country faces a number of solutions to be resolved witch economic and social issues of great significance. In this paper, the actual economic development, while actively promoting the exchange rate from the proposed reform, improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism, the implementation of fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policies, and enhancing our ability to effectively and actively expand domestic demand and supply of other macro-level, macro-guidance role of the government force; the other hand, at the micro level, the proposed revaluation trend, advocates changes in business philosophy, a diversified export strategy, increase the technological content and added value to improve their core competitiveness, take the difference, standardized, the brand of the road, do a good job of international marketing and to enhance the awareness to avoid exchange rate risk, financial risk using a variety of tools to improve Imperial's ability to cope with risk.