Crisis Hypothesis Testing"

The study of"Crisis Hypothesis"in academic community is so far more in-depth, not only has so much literature elaborated the logical principal of the cause of crisis in various aspects, but also have many metrology and inspection tests provided positive results. However, the backgrounds of these studies are confined to the developed countries that implement market economic system or under"Washington Consensus". In domestic research, scholars have noted the phenomenon of the crisis caused by the reform and make a number of case studies, but these studies are only at a preliminary level, lacking systematic theoretical and empirical research. Therefore, the main drawback of existing researches is the lack of the study on a single country. This paper is making an attempt to analyze the relation between the financial crisis and the reform of state-owned firms on the base of Chinese social-transition; thus, examining the applicability of"Crisis Hypothesis"in China.The logical thinking and main content is as follows: Firstly, on the basis of the study of Chinese reform process in domestic academics, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the financial crisis pushing forward the reform of state-owned enterprises under the Chinese social-transition; then, propose the hypothesis testing and programming model. Secondly, we use Probit-model to examine the relationship between the financial crisis and the reform of state-owned enterprise, in order to study the"crisis hypothesis"applicability in China. As we take the Chinese-style smooth social-transition and transitional institutional arrangements under the specific historical background in consideration, we manage to get a more meaningful research result. At last, we make two pieces of conclusions as follows: First, in crisis years, the probability of the reform of the Chinese state-owned enterprises is 50%, which is 3 times as the one in non-crisis years. So we can assume that the financial crisis push forward or contribute to the reform of Chinese state-owned enterprise; as a result, the"Crisis Hypothesis"is more or less valid in China. Second, on one hand, as Chinese government is a ruling group which has the characteristic of"rational economic man", the government is to maximize the rationality through public production under the constrain of financial budget; on the other hand, as the existence of Wagner's Law and principal of diminishing marginal returns, in order to break the vicious circle between financial pressures and irrationalities, the government will initiative to implement the reform of state-owned enterprises. This paper may have two points of innovation: one is that the current domestic researches are only at a preliminary level, lacking systematic theoretical and empirical research and the study on a single country. This paper tests the relationship between financial crisis and the reform of Chinese state-owned enterprises under the Chinese social-transition, which is the largest marginal contribution to this article. The other is that this paper discusses the Chinese economic reform process from a crisis perspective and makes a new understanding of Chinese reform path, what's more, based on this new perspective, we propose how to use crisis to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, which is a useful complement to the transition economic theory.