The Spatial And Temporal Characteristics. Yunnan Province County 1996-2008 Arable Land Area Change And Its Autocorrelation Analysis

Farmland protection is a serious and difficult task, and is also our responsibility to the economy, the environment, and generations. This is more of a basic national policy which we need to long-term adherence. Therefore, the issue of farmland change has been the focus of scholars study. Farmland change process and the driving force is the core of this issue.This paper used 129 county-level administrative divisions of Yunnan Province as the research object. Its analysis based on each county land-use statistical date from 1996 to 2008. Standing on a macro perspective, this paper used spatial autocorrelation analysis, make the explanation of farmland changes, and establish a new model to simulate the variation of farmland.Firstly, this paper studied the overall changes of farmland change in Yunnan Province. It is found that there are three periods in the whole change. And it make conclusion:the formation of each period has closely linked with the economic impact and policy adjustments.Secondly, this paper studied the changes of farmland in each county. It found the area whose farmland has the largest reduction and found the area whose farmland was increased.Thirdly, this paper analyzed the autocorrelation of farmland chance in Yunnan Province. With the amount of farmland changes, autocorrelation is divided into six modes:D-N, D-W, D-P, S-N, S-W, and S-N. Through the typical cases, the paper analyzed the formation of each mode. Their formation process is still under both economic and policy implications. Economic development led to rapid urbanization, and the building and transportation must need more space. To meet this demand, while with land reclamation, we must occupy a part of farmland. This phenomenon has caused farmland reduction. The "Grain for Green", "dynamic balance" policy, also played their different effects. The "Grain for Green" police caused farmland decreased. "Dynamic balance" policy protected farmland.Fourthly, based on the above analysis, this paper constructed a "cellular model" to explain the formation of each mode and to explore the basic law of farmland. The basic model is "Cellular Model under the influence of the economy and one city". The variant model is "Cellular Model under the influence of the economy and cities". There are also three distortion models:"Terrain distortion model","The grain for green project distortion model" and "The Dynamic Balance project distortion model" All of those models constitute a complete model system.