Research On The Risk In County Government Debts And Its Early-Warning

Local governmental debt is all of the debt that foamed as direct borrowed or guaranteed by the local government or its functional departments, and that must ultimately be repaid by the Government. With the economy developing continuously, the local governmental investment in urban infrastructure increases, while the demand for construction funds is also growing. The main sources of funds for construction are fiscal taxes, land lease income and debt income, of which the former two can not meet the growing needs of construction funds, so local government has to rely on debt income increasingly. Nowadays, the size of local governmental debt has expanded rapidly, therefore the risk of debt has been highlighted. It has become a rising problem, worthy of further study, that how to create a risk assessment system to effectively manage local the debt and prevent financial risk, maintain finance developing stably and steadily.In this context, this article in-depth analyzed the reason of local governmental debt risk with the condition of local governmental debt risk of a district in Chengdu. Then according to the actual study and feasible data, it constructed index system to evaluate the situation of local governmental debt risk, with the method of the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. And on the basis of the index system, it constructed an early warning indicator system. Drawing on the experience of preventing debt risk from foreign nations, it suggested some measures on risk prevention and policy research to innovate local governmental financial mechanisms.