System Dynamics Model On Economies Of Scale And Population Structure Of Rizhao City

The twelfth five-year plan of Marine economic was promoted to national strategy, "the national Marine economic planning" published ocean industries of GDP will reach 20% or more by 2020. Port city is of vital importance in the economic development, but except Shanghai, Tianjin, Ningbo, Qingdao develop such a good harbor city, the majority are in take-off in scale economic. Economic take-off requires a lot of money and talent to promote. The competitiveness around port cities are stronger than the economic take-off port cities, have led to the siphoning effect of lack of funds and irrational employment of local. The main methods to obtain the current capital finance is social investment and for national independently, but for the siphon effect of the port city is ineffective. Taking Rizhao City as example, propose coastal path of the economic take-off port city under the capital strategies of the national marine economy, system dynamics model was built quantitatively analyzing how to use the capital. Through model analyzing the employment population structure, simulating the scale of investment on the impact of economic and social development, and making recommendations.Firstly, based on factor analysis this text builds the evaluation model of a port city's scale competitiveness, considers the drawing up of the population of employment, the relative size of indicators to evaluate competitiveness of the scale of cities. Secondly, it puts forward the Rizhao's capital gain path under the country's economic strategy. That is, to acquire the important program for the development of regional joint and play a part in a lever effects of social capital to drive by the local government. Thirdly, we establish the scale of cities system dynamics model to research interactive relationship among the port, economy, and demography. Through Policy simulation via various investment for economic development and different impact of urbanization level and employment, economic, demographic structure (the local workforce, foreign workforce) relationship, we put forward corresponding policies.It offers the basic thinking and approaches for the solution to the port city of the scale of economic take-off. Under country's economic strategy to the port city to seize the opportunities, it has significant effect.