| Along with the rapid development of China's market economy, China's industrial enterprises have also got a rapid progress in the aspects of quantity, scale, management, technology and so on. But this process is accompanied by many constraining bottlenecks. For example, Chinese market economy has caused an irrational structure, a lack of marketing management experience in industrial enterprise, especially the lack for summaries on historical experience about the great-leap-forward development and the lack for research on market regulations. Some industries and enterprises undergo ups and downs in the big market economy tide which is not conform to the trend of Chinese smooth going and fast developing economy. How to construct specifically a highly scientific and strong referenced running situation judge model targeted for a certain industry and enterprise appears particularly urgent.At present, China has established steel industry boom index, small commodity market boom index, shipping boom index and other similar indexes. On the basis of historical and current data, to release regularly of relevant industries and enterprises economic operation predictions and instructional suggestions has offered a scientific reference index to the enterprise management decision, production decision and strategic decision.Shipbuilding industry is the important backbone industry of national economy. Economic development influences the demand of shipbuilding market and shipbuilding market demand also reflects economic development condition. Making research and predict on the ship market variation trend can not only conduce to the healthy development of the shipping industry, but also benefit to hold the economic development pulse and to carry out the production management and strategic decision.The full-text has selected nearly 22 years of annual data that has an effect on completed order quantity, handheld order quantity and new received orders quantity of the shipbuilding market boom. It applys SPSS factor method to do analysis and determine the main influence factors. It has also used the OLS regression method to construct a curve trend diagram that reflects shipbuilding market boom and has established China shipbuilding boom index based on this time interval. Then it proves the monthly trend of the last two years by using this model and further discusses the index applications on both macro and micro warnings. This paper's main achievements are boldly putting forward as well as doing preliminary research and construction on the shipbuilding market boom index, and applying the index to the shipbuilding market warning field, which provides a new way for the field's warnings. |
