The Research About The Co-Movement Of Rmb Exchange Rate Policy And Monetary Mismatch And Transmission Mechanism

Along with the development of world economic globalization, developing countries has been gradually into the global economy system, but generally there are serious monetary mismatch problems in these countries. In recent years, China's monetary mismatch scale showed a trend of increase, at the same time the RMB appreciation pressure was growing day by day, monetary mismatch become a problem that RMB exchange rate reform have to face. Therefore, to analyze the coordination between RMB exchange rate policy and monetary mismatch as well as how to transmit from each other play a practical significance in preventing and controlling monetary mismatch risk.Firstly, this paper elaborated the research background and significance and sum up the research situation which domestic and overseas scholars has already studied, then introduced the related theory about monetary mismatch. Based on this, this paper calculated china's 1989 ~ 2008 monetary mismatch level use the AECM index, and Concluded that China'monetary mismatch has a trend of constantly rising, and even made an analysis about the characteristic and evolution trend of monetary mismatch as well as the influence for China's economy. Because currency policy has great influence on monetary mismatch, this paper analyzed transmission mechanism between RMB exchange rate policy and monetary mismatch from several points, and based on which, made an empirical test on the coordination between RMB exchange rate policy and monetary mismatch. In the final, combined with the status of monetary mismatch and consequence of previous studies, this paper come up with some suggestions about how to control and eliminate China's monetary mismatch risk.In the research method, this paper firstly adopts the multivariate linear regression model to examine each index factor about the influence degree for China's monetary mismatch, and the results showed that the exchange rate system is the biggest influencing factor, and has a negative correlation with monetary mismatch. Secondly, based on the above empirical result, this paper also established the vector regression equation to make an empirical test on the coordination between the exchange rate policy and monetary mismatch, after the ADF test and getting the regression equation, this paper also made an correlation coefficient test and granger test on the exchange rate policy and monetary mismatch, concluded that there is a long-term stable association relationship between them.