Crude Oil Spot Price Influenced By Speculators' Psychological Expectations Based On Double-deck Complex Network

First,based on the analysis of speculators'psychological process affect the spot price of crude oil,build up the double complex network of logical layer and physical layer.Network with the speculators'expectations as a logical layer,with the crude oil spot price volatility network as the physical layer,an intermediate layer with the mapping.By analysising the statistical relationship between the mood index and price change frenquency based on the central intermediary,study mapping strength of two network.Then,proposed the generation method of physical layer and logical layer network.Using continuous two days spot prices'change,spot price series is transformed symbols sequence composed of R(rise),e(constant),D(down),and continuous five symbols combination is regarded as a node,and generate the oil spot price fluctuations network.With the psychological threshold rate of return series is transformed symbols sequence composed of u(bullish),e(conatant),d(put) three expectation,and generate the speculators'expectation complex network.By analyzing the network topology,analysis the general law hidden in of the sign change.Finally,choose the Cushing,OK WTI Spot Price FOB and oil futures contract 1 from January 1986 through November 2009 and generate expectations network and the network of oil spot price volatility,analyzing the nature of the network topology,the results show both networks are non-linear,short-range correlation and long-range correlation co-exist,and node of the first 10% have high contribution rate,control of the network evolution trend.Relative mood indicators and relative changes frequency has a strong linear correlation the minor changes of expectation lead to the bigger changes in oil spot price,in the each circulation of expectation effecting on oil spot price,the time length of the expectation fluctuation is more than crude oil spot price.Relative bullish emotions and absolute rise frenquency have srong linear correlation.The results has some significance for the understanding the law of the price fluctuations and avoiding of crude oil price volatility.